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Escaping Famine through Seasonal Migration

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  • Bryan, Gharad
  • Chowdhury, Shyamal
  • Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq

Abstract

Hunger during pre-harvest lean seasons is widespread in the agrarian areas of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. We randomly assign an $8.50 incentive to households in rural Bangladesh to out-migrate during the lean season. The incentive induces 22% of households to send a seasonal migrant, their consumption at the origin increases significantly, and treated households are 8-10 percentage points more likely to re-migrate 1 and 3 years after the incentive is removed. These facts can be explained qualitatively by a model in which migration is risky, mitigating risk requires individual-specific learning, and some migrants are sufficiently close to subsistence such that failed migration is very costly. We document evidence consistent with this model using heterogeneity analysis and additional experimental variation, but calibrations with forward-looking households that can save up to migrate suggest that it is difficult for the model to quantitatively match the data. We conclude with extensions to the model that could provide a better quantitative accounting of the behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan, Gharad & Chowdhury, Shyamal & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2013. "Escaping Famine through Seasonal Migration," Center Discussion Papers 159707, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:yaleeg:159707
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.159707
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    Cited by:

    1. Natasha Stoudmann & Lena M. Reibelt & Christian A. Kull & Claude A. Garcia & Mirana Randriamalala & Patrick O. Waeber, 2019. "Biting the Bullet: Dealing with the Annual Hunger Gap in the Alaotra, Madagascar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Mobarak, Ahmed Musfiq & Rosenzweig, Mark, 2013. "Risk, Insurance and Wages in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 127, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    3. Priya Manwaring & Tanner Regan, 2023. "Public Disclosure and Tax Compliance: Evidence from Uganda," CSAE Working Paper Series 2023-05, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. World Bank, 2014. "More Jobs, Better Jobs : A Priority for Egypt," World Bank Publications - Reports 20584, The World Bank Group.
    5. Lee, Yu Na, 2015. "Effect of Price Risk on Migration: Evidence from Ethiopian Rural Households," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205812, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    7. BenYishay, Ariel & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq, 2013. "Communicating with Farmers through Social Networks," Working Papers 121, Yale University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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