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Effects of Social Security Policies on Benefit Claiming, Retirement and Saving

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  • Alan L. Gustman
  • Thomas L. Steinmeier

Abstract

An enhanced version of a structural model jointly explains benefit claiming, wealth and retirement, including reversals from states of lesser to greater work. The model includes stochastic returns on assets. Estimated with Health and Retirement Study data, it does a better job of predicting claiming than previous versions. Alternative beliefs about the future of Social Security affect predicted outcomes. Effects of three potential policies are also examined: increasing the early entitlement age, increasing the full retirement age, and eliminating the payroll tax for seniors. Predicted responses to increasing the full entitlement age are sensitive to beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2013. "Effects of Social Security Policies on Benefit Claiming, Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 19071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19071
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    2. Magnani, Marco, 2024. "An analysis of precautionary behavior in retirement decision making with an application to pension system reform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 99-113.
    3. Knell, Markus, 2021. "Actuarial deductions for early retirement," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 141-167, June.
    4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2014. "The Role of Health in Retirement," NBER Working Papers 19902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aganbegyan, Abel Gezevich & Gorlin, Yury Mikhailovich & Dormidontova, Yulia & Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna & Nazarov, Vladimir, "undated". "Analysis of Factors that Influences on Decision About Retirement Age," Published Papers nvg125, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Tatjana Schimetschek, 2021. "Optimal social security claiming behavior under lump sum incentives: Theory and evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 5-27, March.
    7. Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2021. "Older peoples' willingness to delay social security claiming," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 410-425, July.
    8. Huang, Wei & Zhang, Chuanchuan, 2016. "The Power of Social Pensions," IZA Discussion Papers 10425, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Yu, Zhixiu, 2024. "Why are older men working more? The role of social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Marco Magnani, 2020. "Precautionary retirement and precautionary saving," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 49-77, January.
    11. Jeffrey DeSimone, 2018. "Suicide And The Social Security Early Retirement Age," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 435-450, July.
    12. Niels Vermeer & Maarten Rooij & Daniel Vuuren, 2019. "Retirement Age Preferences: The Role of Social Interactions and Anchoring at the Statutory Retirement Age," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(4), pages 307-345, December.
    13. Jing You & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Intergenerational Impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 47-95, December.
    14. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2024. "Accounting For Social Security Claiming Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 505-545, February.
    15. Tiantian Dai & Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2024. "How do subjective mortality beliefs affect the value of social security and the optimal claiming ages?," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 92-116, March.
    16. Park, Hyeon, 2023. "Bounded rationality and optimal retirement age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Anna Magdalena Korzeniowska, 2021. "Heterogeneity of government social spending in European Union countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Robert Huterski & Agnieszka Anna Huterska & Justyna Łapińska & Ewa Zdunek-Rosa, 2020. "The problem of savings exclusion and gross savings in the new European Union member states," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2470-2480, March.
    19. Abby Alpert & David Powell, 2020. "Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1855-1873, October.
    20. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    21. Jing You & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2017. "Smoothing or strengthening the ‘Great Gatsby Curve’? The intergenerational impact of China’s New Rural Pension Scheme," WIDER Working Paper Series 199, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Jing You & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2017. "Smoothing or strengthening the 'Great Gatsby curve'?: The intergenerational impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-199, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Jason Scott & John B. Shoven & Sita Slavov & John G. Watson, 2019. "Retirement Implications of a Low Wage Growth, Low Real Interest Rate Economy," NBER Working Papers 25556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Claudia Jiton & Dzurizah Ibrahim, 2024. "Determinants of Special EPF Withdrawals among Malaysian Employees Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(4), pages 1861-1871, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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