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'Lucas' In The Laboratory

Author

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  • Elena Asparouhova
  • Peter Bossaerts
  • Nilanjan Roy
  • William Zame

Abstract

This paper reports on experimental tests of an instantiation of the Lucas asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents and time-varying private income streams. Central features of the model (infinite horizon, perishability of consumption, stationarity) present difficult challenges and require a novel experimental design. The experimental evidence provides broad support for the qualitative pricing and consumption predictions of the model (prices move with fundamentals, agents smooth consumption) but sharp differences from the quantitative predictions emerge (asset prices display excess volatility, agents do not hedge price risk). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) tests of the stochastic Euler equations yield very different conclusions depending on the instruments chosen. It is suggested that the qualitative agreement with and quantitative deviation from theoretical predictions arise from agents' expectations about future prices, which are almost self-fulfilling and yet very different from what they would need to be if they were exactly self-fulfilling (as the Lucas model requires).

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2013. "'Lucas' In The Laboratory," NBER Working Papers 19068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19068
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    2. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2024. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8772-8790, December.
    3. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2019. "Experimental Asset Markets with An Indefinite Horizon," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-15, CIRANO.
    4. Fenig, Guidon & Mileva, Mariya & Petersen, Luba, 2018. "Deflating asset price bubbles with leverage constraints and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-27.
    5. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
    6. Biais, Bruno & Mariotti, Thomas & Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "Asset Pricing and Risk Sharing in Complete Markets: An Experimental Investigation," TSE Working Papers 17-798, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Aug 2024.
    7. Kendall, Chad & Oprea, Ryan, 2018. "Are biased beliefs fit to survive? An experimental test of the market selection hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 342-371.
    8. Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes & María del Carmen Valls Martínez, 2023. "Unraveling the relationship between betas and ESG scores through the Random Forests methodology," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-29, September.
    9. Te Bao & Edward Halim & Charles N. Noussair & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2021. "Managerial incentives and stock price dynamics: an experimental approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 617-648, June.
    10. Alexander M. Chinco & Samuel M. Hartzmark & Abigail B. Sussman, 2020. "Necessary Evidence For A Risk Factor’s Relevance," NBER Working Papers 27227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bohr, Clement E. & Holt, Charles A. & Schubert, Alexandra V., 2019. "Assisted savings for retirement: An experimental analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 42-54.
    12. Wagner, Alexander F. & Gibson Brandon, Rajna & Sohn, Matthias & Tanner, Carmen, 2018. "Earnings Management and Managerial Honesty: The Investors’ Perspectives," CEPR Discussion Papers 13207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Crockett, Sean & Friedman, Daniel & Oprea, Ryan, 2017. "Aggregation and convergence in experimental general equilibrium economies constructed from naturally occurring preferences," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship Market Design: Theory and Pragmatics SP II 2017-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    14. Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.

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    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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