IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17563.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Lucas Orchard

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Martin

Abstract

This paper investigates the behavior of asset prices in an endowment economy in which a representative agent with power utility consumes the dividends of multiple assets. The assets are Lucas trees; a collection of Lucas trees is a Lucas orchard. The model generates return correlations that vary endogenously, spiking at times of disaster. Since disasters spread across assets, the model generates large risk premia even for assets with stable fundamentals. Very small assets may comove endogenously and hence earn positive risk premia even if their fundamentals are independent of the rest of the economy. I provide conditions under which the variation in a small asset's price-dividend ratio can be attributed almost entirely to variation in its risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Martin, 2011. "The Lucas Orchard," NBER Working Papers 17563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17563
    Note: AP EFG IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17563.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:719-730 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-729, July.
    4. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    5. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Mei, Jianping, 1993. "Where Do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 567-592.
    7. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    8. Jiang, Wang, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 75-110, May.
    9. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    11. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:719-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    14. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    16. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin, 2012. "Generalized Transform Analysis of Affine Processes and Applications in Finance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2225-2256.
    17. John Campbell & Jianping Mei, 1993. "Where do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 4329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    19. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    20. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    21. Dumas, Bernard, 1989. "Two-Person Dynamic Equilibrium in the Capital Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 157-188.
    22. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    23. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    25. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:11:p:3169-3215 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Ian Martin, 2012. "On the Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 346-358.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    2. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    3. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    4. Andrei, Daniel & Carlin, Bruce I., 2023. "Schumpeterian competition in a Lucas economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1610206, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    8. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
    9. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    10. John Y. Campbell, 2003. "Two Puzzles of Asset Pricing and Their Implications for Investors," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 47(1), pages 48-74, March.
    11. Paul Scanlon, 2008. "New Goods and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 927, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Risk premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1557-1576, September.
    13. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    15. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous epstein-zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    18. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    19. Stavros Panageas & Nicolae Garleanu, 2008. "Yooung, Old, Conservative and Bold: The implications of finite lives and heterogeneity for asset prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 409, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.