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History, Gravity and International Finance

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  • Livia Chițu
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Arnaud J. Mehl

Abstract

We analyze patterns of bilateral financial investment using data on US investors' holdings of foreign bonds. We document a "history effect" in which the pattern of holdings seven decades ago continues to influence holdings today. 10 to 15% of the cross-country variation in US investors' foreign bond holdings is explained by holdings 70 years ago, plausibly reflecting fixed costs of market entry and exit together with endogenous learning. This effect is twice as large for bonds denominated in currencies other than the dollar, suggesting the existence of even higher fixed costs of initiating US foreign investment in such currencies. Our findings point to history and path dependence as key sources of financial market segmentation.

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  • Livia Chițu & Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2013. "History, Gravity and International Finance," NBER Working Papers 18697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18697
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    1. History matters: even in very deep and heavily traded markets
      by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo on 2013-01-21 18:42:30

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    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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