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Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes and Market Efficiency

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  • Michael Smirlock
  • Jess B. Yawitz

Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to reconcile the previous findings of discount rate endogeneity with the presence of discount rate announcement effects in securities markets. The crux of this reconciliation is the dictinction between "technicral" discount rate changes that are endogenous and "non-technical" changes which contain some informative policy implications. In essence, we attempt to separate expected discount rate changes from unexpected changes, or equivalently, the expected component of discount rate changes from the unexpected component. If markets are efficient, the former should have no announcement effects while the latter may be associated with an announcement effect. Accordingly, the focus of the empirical analysis is on the interaction between discount rate exogeneity, the specific monetary policy regime, and announcement effects. In addition, we examine whether the behaviorof these markets in the post-announcement period is consistent with the rapid price adjustment implied by market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Smirlock & Jess B. Yawitz, 1984. "Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 1530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1530
    Note: ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 481-490, September.
    7. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-354, August.
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