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The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Author

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  • Alan Gerber
  • Daniel Kessler
  • Marc Meredith

Abstract

During the contest for Kansas attorney general in 2006, an organization sent out 6 pieces of mail criticizing the incumbent's conduct in office. We exploit a discontinuity in the rule used to select which households received the mailings to identify the causal effect of mail on vote choice and voter turnout. We find these mailings had both a statistically and politically significant effect on the challenger's vote share. Our estimates suggest that a ten percentage point increase in the amount of mail sent to a precinct increased the challenger's vote share by approximately three percentage points. Furthermore, our results suggest that the mechanism for this increase was persuasion rather than mobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Gerber & Daniel Kessler & Marc Meredith, 2008. "The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 14206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14206
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    1. Jaan Masso & Priit Vahter, 2012. "The link between innovation and productivity in Estonia's services sector," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(16), pages 2527-2541, December.
    2. Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Using Innovation Surveys for Econometric Analysis," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1129-1155, Elsevier.

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    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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