IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/13854.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Yacine Aït-Sahalia
  • Michael W. Brandt

Abstract

We propose an empirical implementation of the consumption-investment problem using the martingale representation alternative to dynamic programming. Our method is based on the direct observation of state prices from options data. This greatly simplifies the investor's task of specifying the investment opportunity set and inherits the computational convenience of the martingale representation. Our method also makes explicit the economic trade-off between exploiting differences in state prices and probabilities, which generate variation in consumption, and the consumption smoothing induced by risk aversion. Using options-implied information, we find quantitatively different optimal consumption and portfolio policies than those implied by standard return dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2008. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices," NBER Working Papers 13854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13854
    Note: AP EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-537, October.
    2. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    3. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    4. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-91, March.
    5. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    6. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
    7. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stanley R. Pliska, 1986. "A Stochastic Calculus Model of Continuous Trading: Optimal Portfolios," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 371-382, May.
    9. Overdahl, James A., 1988. "The Early Exercise of Options on Treasury Bond Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 437-449, December.
    10. Jérôme B. Detemple & Ren Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003. "A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 401-446, February.
    11. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    12. Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2003. "Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims," Staff Reports 162, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    14. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:499-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Banz, Rolf W & Miller, Merton H, 1978. "Prices for State-contingent Claims: Some Estimates and Applications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 653-672, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schneider, Paul, 2015. "Generalized risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 487-504.
    2. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2019. "On the paradigm shift of asset pricing models, before and after the global financial crisis: a literature review," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(29), pages 7-38, Primer se.
    3. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Felix Brinkmann & Olaf Korn, 2018. "Risk-adjusted option-implied moments," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 149-173, July.
    5. Yoshihiko Sugihara & Nobuyuki Oda, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Market Expectations in the Recent Financial Turmoil Using Implied Moments and Jump Diffusion Processes," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    3. Jérôme Detemple, 2014. "Portfolio Selection: A Review," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Detemple, Jérôme & Garcia, René & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2005. "Intertemporal asset allocation: A comparison of methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2821-2848, November.
    5. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
    6. Castañeda, Pablo & Reus, Lorenzo, 2019. "Suboptimal investment behavior and welfare costs: A simulation based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 170-180.
    7. Chenxu Li & Olivier Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Wealth Effect on Portfolio Allocation in Incomplete Markets," Papers 2004.10096, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    8. Thijs Kamma & Antoon Pelsser, 2019. "Near-Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation in Financial Markets with Trading Constraints," Papers 1906.12317, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    9. Chenxu Li & O. Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Decomposition of Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Wealth-Dependent Utilities in Incomplete Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2010. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2970-3016, August.
    11. Kamma, Thijs & Pelsser, Antoon, 2022. "Near-optimal asset allocation in financial markets with trading constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 766-781.
    12. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    13. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Duarte, Jefferson, 2003. "Nonparametric option pricing under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 9-47.
    14. L. Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel, 2020. "On the construction of optimal payoffs," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(1), pages 129-153, June.
    15. Jessica A. Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
    16. Goll, Thomas & Kallsen, Jan, 2000. "Optimal portfolios for logarithmic utility," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 31-48, September.
    17. Boyle, Phelim & Tian, Weidong, 2008. "The design of equity-indexed annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 303-315, December.
    18. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    19. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates and learning about stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 347-370.
    20. Jouini, Elyes, 2001. "Arbitrage and control problems in finance: A presentation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 167-183, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.