IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v30y2019icp170-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Suboptimal investment behavior and welfare costs: A simulation based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Castañeda, Pablo
  • Reus, Lorenzo

Abstract

We propose a representation of suboptimal investment behavior based on the stochastic discount factor (SDF) paradigm. Suboptimal investment behavior is rationalized as being the investor’s optimal decision under a wrong SDF, while wealth trajectories and budget constraints are based on the true SDF. We develop a novel Monte Carlo simulation approach to compute the welfare costs for this suboptimal behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Castañeda, Pablo & Reus, Lorenzo, 2019. "Suboptimal investment behavior and welfare costs: A simulation based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 170-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:170-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.09.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612318302563
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2018.09.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Lee, Seungkyu & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2016. "Robust consumption and portfolio rules with time-varying model confidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 342-352.
    2. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Nieuwerburgh & Motohiro Yogo, 2016. "Health and Mortality Delta: Assessing the Welfare Cost of Household Insurance Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 957-1010, April.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    4. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2007. "Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 707-747, October.
    5. Andrea Buraschi & Robert Kosowski & Worrawat Sritrakul, 2014. "Incentives and Endogenous Risk Taking: A Structural View on Hedge Fund Alphas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2819-2870, December.
    6. Martin B. Haugh & Leonid Kogan & Jiang Wang, 2006. "Evaluating Portfolio Policies: A Duality Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 405-418, June.
    7. Chunhua Lan, 2015. "An Out-of-Sample Evaluation of Dynamic Portfolio Strategies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2359-2399.
    8. Nicole Branger & Beate Breuer & Christian Schlag, 2010. "Discrete-time implementation of continuous-time portfolio strategies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 137-152.
    9. Xing Jin & Allen X. Zhang, 2012. "Decomposition of Optimal Portfolio Weight in a Jump-Diffusion Model and Its Applications," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2877-2919.
    10. Corradi, Valentina, 2000. "Reconsidering the continuous time limit of the GARCH(1, 1) process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 145-153, May.
    11. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2009. "Fight or Flight? Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 301-348.
    12. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-91, March.
    13. Björn Bick & Holger Kraft & Claus Munk, 2013. "Solving Constrained Consumption-Investment Problems by Simulation of Artificial Market Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 485-503, June.
    14. Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2014. "The Cross-Section of Managerial Ability, Incentives, and Risk Preferences," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1051-1098, June.
    15. Jérôme B. Detemple & Ren Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003. "A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 401-446, February.
    16. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
    17. Jan Kallsen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2015. "Option Pricing And Hedging With Small Transaction Costs," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 702-723, October.
    18. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    19. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Schneider, Eva, 2008. "Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1097, June.
    20. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2809-2834 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    23. Kahl, Matthias & Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A., 2003. "Paper millionaires: how valuable is stock to a stockholder who is restricted from selling it?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 385-410, March.
    24. Castañeda, Pablo & Devoto, Benjamín, 2016. "On the structural estimation of an optimal portfolio rule," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 290-300.
    25. Christian Flor & Linda Larsen, 2014. "Robust portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 243-265, May.
    26. Mark Schroder & Costis Skiadas, 2002. "An Isomorphism Between Asset Pricing Models With and Without Linear Habit Formation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1189-1221.
    27. Roche, Hervé & Tompaidis, Stathis & Yang, Chunyu, 2013. "Why does junior put all his eggs in one basket? A potential rational explanation for holding concentrated portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 775-796.
    28. Branger, Nicole & Hansis, Alexandra, 2012. "Asset allocation: How much does model choice matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1865-1882.
    29. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    30. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    31. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1397-1411.
    32. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Theo E. Nijman & Bas J. M. Werker, 2010. "When Can Life Cycle Investors Benefit from Time-Varying Bond Risk Premia?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 741-780, February.
    33. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
    34. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    35. Jér^me Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2005. "Closed‐Form Solutions For Optimal Portfolio Selection With Stochastic Interest Rate And Investment Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 539-568, October.
    36. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris, 2013. "Robust portfolio choice with uncertainty about jump and diffusion risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5036-5047.
    37. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    38. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-161.
    39. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    40. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 621-656, September.
    41. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
    42. Jerome B. Detemple & Fernando Zapatero, 1992. "Optimal Consumption‐Portfolio Policies With Habit Formation1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 251-274, October.
    43. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
    44. Hans-Martin Von Gaudecker, 2015. "How Does Household Portfolio Diversification Vary with Financial Literacy and Financial Advice?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 489-507, April.
    45. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003. "Dynamic derivative strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-430, September.
    46. Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Model misspecification and pricing of illiquid claims," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 242-249.
    47. Detemple, Jerome B. & Giannikos, Christos I., 1996. "Asset and commodity prices with multi-attribute durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1451-1504, August.
    48. Hindy, Ayman & Huang, Chi-fu, 1992. "Intertemporal Preferences for Uncertain Consumption: A Continuous Time Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 781-801, July.
    49. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    50. Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Behavioral Portfolio Selection In Continuous Time," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 385-426, July.
    51. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Park, Seyoung, 2016. "Ambiguity and optimal portfolio choice with Value-at-Risk constraint," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 158-176.
    52. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2015. "Robust portfolio choice with derivative trading under stochastic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 142-157.
    53. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    54. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    55. Jérome Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2010. "Dynamic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Decomposition Formula and Applications," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 25-100, January.
    56. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    57. Bodie, Zvi & Detemple, Jerome B. & Otruba, Susanne & Walter, Stephan, 2004. "Optimal consumption-portfolio choices and retirement planning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1115-1148, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lorenzo Reus & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "Robust Solutions to the Life-Cycle Consumption Problem," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 481-499, February.
    2. Wei, Pengyu & Yang, Charles & Zhuang, Yi, 2023. "Robust consumption and portfolio choice with derivatives trading," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 832-850.
    3. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    4. Chenxu Li & Olivier Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Wealth Effect on Portfolio Allocation in Incomplete Markets," Papers 2004.10096, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Chenxu Li & O. Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Decomposition of Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Wealth-Dependent Utilities in Incomplete Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Jérôme Detemple, 2014. "Portfolio Selection: A Review," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Moreira, Alan & Muir, Tyler, 2019. "Should Long-Term Investors Time Volatility?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 507-527.
    8. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
    9. Munk, Claus, 2008. "Portfolio and consumption choice with stochastic investment opportunities and habit formation in preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3560-3589, November.
    10. Branger, Nicole & Hansis, Alexandra, 2015. "Earning the right premium on the right factor in portfolio planning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 367-383.
    11. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
    13. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner, 2016. "A Primer on Portfolio Choice with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1612.01302, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    14. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    15. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2010. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2970-3016, August.
    16. Castaneda, Pablo & Rudolph, Heinz P., 2011. "Upgrading investment regulations in second pillar pension systems : a proposal for Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5775, The World Bank.
    17. Kasper Larsen & Oleksii Mostovyi & Gordan Žitković, 2018. "An expansion in the model space in the context of utility maximization," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 297-326, April.
    18. Schroder, Mark & Skiadas, Costis, 2003. "Optimal lifetime consumption-portfolio strategies under trading constraints and generalized recursive preferences," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 155-202, December.
    19. Schroder, Mark & Skiadas, Costis, 2005. "Lifetime consumption-portfolio choice under trading constraints, recursive preferences, and nontradeable income," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-30, January.
    20. Zvi Bodie & Jérôme Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2009. "Life-Cycle Finance and the Design of Pension Plans," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 249-286, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset allocation; Martingale method; Portfolio selection; Suboptimal investment; Monte Carlo simulation; Welfare loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:30:y:2019:i:c:p:170-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.