IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua V. Rosenberg

Abstract

In this paper, I derive and implement a nonparametric, arbitrage-free technique for multivariate contingent claim (MVCC) pricing. Using results from the method of copulas, I show that the multivariate risk-neutral density can be written as a product of marginal risk-neutral densities and a risk-neutral dependence function. I then develop a pricing technique using nonparametrically estimated marginal risk-neutral densities (based on options data) and a nonparametric dependence function (based on historical return data). By using nonparametric estimation, I avoid the pricing biases that result from incorrect parametric assumptions such as lognormality. ; I apply this technique to estimate the joint risk-neutral density of euro-dollar and yen-dollar returns. I compare the nonparametric risk-neutral density with density based on a lognormal dependence function and nonparametric marginals. The nonparametric euro-yen risk-neutral density has greater volatility, skewness, and kurtosis than the density based on a lognormal dependence function. In a comparison of pricing accuracy for euro-yen futures options, I find that the nonparametric model is superior to the lognormal model.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2003. "Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims," Staff Reports 162, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:162
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Joshua V. Rosenberg, "Non-parametric Pricing of Multivariate Contingent Claims," Journal of Derivatives 10, no. 3 (spring 2003): 9-26.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr162.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr162.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "Option Pricing and the Martingale Restriction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1091-1124.
    4. Rosenberg, Joshua V., 1998. "Pricing multivariate contingent claims using estimated risk-neutral density functions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-247, April.
    5. Boyle, Phelim P & Evnine, Jeremy & Gibbs, Stephen, 1989. "Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Contingent Claims," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 241-250.
    6. Jean-David FERMANIAN & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Copulas for Time Series," FAME Research Paper Series rp57, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    7. Boyle, Phelim P., 1988. "A Lattice Framework for Option Pricing with Two State Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, March.
    8. Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. "The Valuation of Multivariate Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 207-228, March.
    9. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome, 1996. "American Option Valuation: New Bounds, Approximations, and a Comparison of Existing Methods," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1211-1250.
    10. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    12. Stulz, ReneM., 1982. "Options on the minimum or the maximum of two risky assets : Analysis and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 161-185, July.
    13. Johnson, Herb, 1987. "Options on the Maximum or the Minimum of Several Assets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 277-283, September.
    14. Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
    15. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. "The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1525-1539, December.
    17. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    18. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    19. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    20. Bouye, Eric & Durlleman, Valdo & Nikeghbali, Ashkan & Riboulet, Gaël & Roncalli, Thierry, 2000. "Copulas for finance," MPRA Paper 37359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Bruce J. Sherrick & Scott H. Irwin & D. Lynn Forster, 1992. "Option‐based evidence of the nonstationarity of expected S&P 500 futures price distributions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 275-290, June.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:499-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    24. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    25. Ho, Teng-Suan & Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1995. "Multivariate Binomial Approximations for Asset Prices with Nonstationary Variance and Covariance Characteristics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1125-1152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Rosenberg, 1999. "Semiparametric Pricing of Multivariate Contingent Claims," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-028, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Rosenberg, Joshua V., 1998. "Pricing multivariate contingent claims using estimated risk-neutral density functions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-247, April.
    4. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175, October.
    5. Peter W. Duck & Chao Yang & David P. Newton & Martin Widdicks, 2009. "Singular Perturbation Techniques Applied To Multiasset Option Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 457-486, July.
    6. Dirk Sierag & Bernard Hanzon, 2018. "Pricing derivatives on multiple assets: recombining multinomial trees based on Pascal’s simplex," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 101-127, July.
    7. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    8. Yoram Landskroner & Alon Raviv, 2008. "The valuation of inflation‐indexed and FX convertible bonds," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 634-655, July.
    9. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
    10. Lars Stentoft, 2013. "American option pricing using simulation with an application to the GARCH model," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 5, pages 114-147, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Genest, C. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models," Discussion Paper 2003-122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Genest, C. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models," Other publications TiSEM 86ec50af-0fb6-4782-b2dd-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J., 2004. "Essays on optimal hedging and investment strategies and on derivative pricing," Other publications TiSEM 4b4b16af-8621-463f-bbfa-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome & Ghysels, Eric & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "American options with stochastic dividends and volatility: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 53-92.
    15. Sarah Bryant & Spiros Martzoukos, 1999. "Multi-currency options and financial institutions' hedging: Correlation does matter," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 478-488, November.
    16. Andrea Gamba & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2007. "An Improved Binomial Lattice Method for Multi-Dimensional Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 453-475.
    17. Giannopoulos, Kostas, 2008. "Nonparametric, conditional pricing of higher order multivariate contingent claims," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1907-1915, September.
    18. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    19. Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2001. "The option on n assets with exchange rate and exercise price risk," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; estimation theory; Eurodollar market; Japanese yen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.