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Real Options With Uncertain Maturity and Competition

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  • Kristian R. Miltersen
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

We develop a new approach to dealing with real options problems with uncertain maturity. This type of situation is typical for R&D investments and mine or oil exploration projects. These types of projects are characterized by significant on-going investment costs until completion. Since time to completion is uncertain, the total investment costs will also be uncertain. Despite the fact that these projects include complicated American abandonment/switching options until completion and European options at completion (because of fixed final investment costs) we obtain simple closed form solutions. We apply the framework to situations in which the owner of the project has monopoly rights to the outcome of the project, and to situations in which there are two owners who simultaneously invest, but where only one of them may obtain the rights to the outcome. We expand the real options framework to incorporate game theoretic considerations, including a generalization of mixed strategies to continuous-time models in the form of abandonment intensities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian R. Miltersen & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2007. "Real Options With Uncertain Maturity and Competition," NBER Working Papers 12990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    2. Kristian R. Miltersen & Eduardo S. Schwart, 2004. "R&D Investments with Competitive Interactions," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 355-401.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Siyahhan, Baran, 2015. "Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Maier, Sebastian & Pflug, Georg C. & Polak, John W., 2020. "Valuing portfolios of interdependent real options under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 133-147.
    3. Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2010. "Licences, "Use or Lose" Provisions and the Time of Investment," Institutions and Markets Papers 59756, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Yao-Wen Hsu, 2010. "Staging of venture capital investment: a real options analysis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 265-281, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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