IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bol/bodewp/569.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuing R & D Investments With A Jump-Diffusion Process

Author

Listed:
  • L. Sereno

Abstract

Traditional tools based on DCF methods fail to capture the value of R&D projects because of their dependence on future events that are uncertain at the time of the initial decision. We consider a continuous-time framework where information arrives both continuously and discontinuously. This is modelled by a jump-diffusion process. This assumption better decribes the evolution of asset value due to the risky nature of many real investments. The main contribution of this paper is to derive a closed-form solution for the multicompound option to value sequential investment opportunities when the underlying asset may reasonably undergo the possibility of jumps in value.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Sereno, 2006. "Valuing R & D Investments With A Jump-Diffusion Process," Working Papers 569, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:569
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://amsacta.unibo.it/4718/1/569.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
    2. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    3. Roll, Richard, 1977. "An analytic valuation formula for unprotected American call options on stocks with known dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 251-258, November.
    4. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Elettra, Agliardi & Rossella, Agliardi, 2003. "A generalization of the Geske formula for compound options," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 75-82, February.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    9. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1235-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    12. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    13. Michael J. P. Selby & Stewart D. Hodges, 1987. "On the Evaluation of Compound Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 347-355, March.
    14. Gukhal, C.R.Chandrasekhar Reddy, 2004. "The compound option approach to American options on jump-diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2055-2074, September.
    15. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    16. Kristian R. Miltersen & Eduardo S. Schwart, 2004. "R&D Investments with Competitive Interactions," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 355-401.
    17. Kristian R. Miltersen & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2004. "R&D Investments with Competitive Interactions," NBER Working Papers 10258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Whaley, Robert E., 1981. "On the valuation of American call options on stocks with known dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 207-211, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garcia Fronti, Javier, 2015. "Modelo estocástico para la valuación de una inversión nanomédica [Nanomedical Stochastic Investment Valuation]," MPRA Paper 63948, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. L. Sereno, 2006. "The Valuation of New Ventures," Working Papers 554, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, February.
    3. Meng, Rujing, 2008. "A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3192-3217, October.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Gukhal, C.R.Chandrasekhar Reddy, 2004. "The compound option approach to American options on jump-diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2055-2074, September.
    6. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    7. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    8. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.
    9. Kung, James J. & Lee, Lung-Sheng, 2009. "Option pricing under the Merton model of the short rate," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 378-386.
    10. Brandão, Luiz E. & Fernandes, Gláucia & Dyer, James S., 2018. "Valuing multistage investment projects in the pharmaceutical industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 720-732.
    11. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175, August.
    12. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138.
    13. Koussis, Nicos & Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Multi-stage product development with exploration, value-enhancing, preemptive and innovation options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 174-190.
    14. Yepes Rodri­guez, Ramón, 2008. "Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1909-1932, July.
    15. Robert L. Brown & Dominique Achour, 1984. "The Pricing of Land Options," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 21(3), pages 317-323, August.
    16. Chen, Yu-Fu & Zoega, Gylfi, 2010. "An essay on the generational effect of employment protection," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 349-359, May.
    17. Dan W. French & Edwin D. Maberly, 1992. "Early Exercise Of American Index Options," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 127-137, June.
    18. Pennings, Enrico & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 374-385, July.
    19. Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2004. "Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing," Finance 0407014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Perrakis, Stylianos & Lefoll, Jean, 2000. "Option pricing and replication with transaction costs and dividends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(11-12), pages 1527-1561, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sebolit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.