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Foreign Subsidization and Excess Capacity

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  • Bruce A. Blonigen
  • Wesley W. Wilson

Abstract

The U.S. steel industry has long held that foreign subsidization and excess capacity has led to its long-run demise, yet no one has formally examined this hypothesis. In this paper, we incorporate foreign subsidization considerations into a model based on Staiger and Wolak's (1992) cyclical-dumping framework and illustrate testable implications of both cyclical excess capacity and structural excess capacity stemming from foreign subsidization. We then use detailed product- and foreign country-level data on steel exports to the U.S. market from 1979 through 2002 to estimate these excess capacity effects. The results provide strong evidence of both cyclical and structural excess capacity effects for exports to the U.S. market. However, the effects are confined to such a narrow range of country-product combinations that it is unlikely that such effects were a significant factor in the fortunes of U.S. steel firms over the past decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson, 2005. "Foreign Subsidization and Excess Capacity," NBER Working Papers 11798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11798
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce A. Blonigen & Benjamin H. Liebman & Wesley W. Wilson, 2007. "Trade Policy and Market Power: The Case of the US Steel Industry," NBER Working Papers 13671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Russell Hillberry & Phillip McCalman, 2016. "Import dynamics and demands for protection," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1125-1152, August.
    3. Muñoz Sepúlveda, Jesús A., 2014. "Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 58328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Muñoz Sepúlveda, Jesús A., 2014. "Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 54799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bruce Blonigen & Benjamin Liebman & Wesley Wilson, 2013. "Antidumping and Production-Line Exit: The Case of the US Steel Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(4), pages 395-413, June.
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    8. Dai, Xiaoyong & Zhao, Zhiqi, 2021. "Can exporting resolve overcapacity? Evidence from Chinese steel companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Bernard Hoekman & Douglas Nelson, 2020. "Rethinking international subsidy rules," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3104-3132, December.
    10. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of anti-dumping duties: Firm-level evidence from China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of antidumping duties: Evidence from the 2004 EU enlargement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Crampes, Claude & Salant, David, 2018. "A multi-regional model of electric resource adequacy," TSE Working Papers 18-877, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Dong, Kaiqiang & Sun, Wei, 2022. "Would the market mechanism cause the formation of overcapacity?: Evidence from Chinese listed firms of manufacturing industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-113.
    14. Wang, Hai & Ye, Shuai & Chen, Hui & Yin, Junya, 2023. "The impact of carbon emission trading policy on overcapacity of companies: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Chad Bown, 2013. "How Different Are Safeguards from Antidumping? Evidence from US Trade Policies Toward Steel," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(4), pages 449-481, June.
    16. Benjamin H. Liebman & Kasaundra M. Tomlin, 2007. "Steel safeguards and the welfare of U.S. steel firms and downstream consumers of steel: a shareholder wealth perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 812-842, August.
    17. Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 65-74.
    18. Yang, Qing & Zhang, Lei & Wang, Xin, 2017. "Dynamic analysis on market structure of China's coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 498-504.
    19. Lu, Juan & Li, He, 2022. "Can high-speed rail improve enterprise capacity utilization? A perspective of supply side and demand side," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 152-163.
    20. Cheng, Bo & Christensen, Tom & Ma, Liang & Yu, Junli, 2021. "Does public money drive out private? Evidence from government regulations of industrial overcapacity governance in urban China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 767-780.
    21. Bernard Hoekman & Douglas Nelson, 2020. "Subsidies, Spillovers and Multilateral Cooperation," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/12, European University Institute.
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    23. Antweiler, Werner, 2016. "Cross-border trade in electricity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 42-51.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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