IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0766.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Determination and the Demand for Money

Author

Listed:
  • Craig S. Hakkio

Abstract

This paper examines the conventional monetary equation of exchange rate determination. Under certain exogeneity conditions, one can write the price level, at home and abroad, as the ratio of the nominal money supply to the demand for real money balances. Then, since the exchange rate is the domestic price of foreign exchange, one can equate the exchange rate to the ratio of domestic to foreign prices. This then allows one to write, and estimate, the exchange rate as a function of the money supply differential, income differential and interest rate differential. If the domestic and foreign money demand errors are autocorrelated, and if deviations from purchasing power parity are autocorrelated, tests based on the above model may be invalid. Only if all autoregressive parameters are equal will test results be valid. A full information maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate and test the assumptions necessary for the conventional procedure to be correct. Finally, two alternative models of exchange rate determination are considered to illustrate the importance of introducing the error terms at the beginning of the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig S. Hakkio, 1981. "Exchange Rate Determination and the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 0766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0766
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0766.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    2. Betancourt, Roger & Kelejian, Harry, 1981. "Lagged Endogenous Variables and the Cochrane-Orcutt Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1073-1078, June.
    3. Dufour, J.M. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1981. "Fixed Points and Minima: a Comment on Betancourt and Kelejian," Cahiers de recherche 8117, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Paul R. Milgrom, 1978. "Rational Expectations," Discussion Papers 406, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastián Edwards, 1983. "La Relación entre las Tasas de Interés y el Tipo de Cambio Bajo un Sistema de Cambio Flotante," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 20(59), pages 65-74.
    2. John H. Makin, 1981. "Exchange Rate Behavior under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jeffrey Goldstein & David Meerschwam, 1984. "International Portfolio Diversification: Short-Term Financial Assets and Gold," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 199-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    7. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Haile, Philip A. & Riley, John G., 2002. "Symmetric Separating Equilibria in English Auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 19-27, January.
    8. William H. Branson, 1983. "A Model of Exchange-Rate Determination with Policy Reaction: Evidence from Monthly Data," NBER Working Papers 1135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    11. Kam-hon CHU & Bob Y. C. Chan & Chor-yiu Sin, 2000. "Contagion Effects, Informational Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics during the Asian Currency Crisis," Working Papers 022000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    14. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    15. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
    16. Ronald M. Harstad, 2005. "Rational Participation Revolutionizes Auction Theory," Working Papers 0518, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    17. Meilke, Karl D. & Coleman, Jonathan R., 1986. "An Evaluation of the Influence of Exchange Rates on the Canadian Red Meat Sector," Working Papers 244739, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    18. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
    19. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    20. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2020. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0766. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.