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A New Procedure For Multiple Testing Of Econometric Models

Author

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  • Maxwell L. King
  • Xibin Zhang
  • Muhammad Akram

Abstract

A significant role for hypothesis testing in econometrics involves diagnostic checking. When checking the adequacy of a chosen model, researchers typically employ a range of diagnostic tests, each of which is designed to detect a particular form of model inadequacy. A major problem is how best to control the overall probability of rejecting the model when it is true and multiple test statistics are used. This paper presents a new multiple testing procedure, which involves checking whether the calculated values of the diagnostic statistics are consistent with the postulated model being true. This is done through a combination of bootstrapping to obtain a multivariate kernel density estimator of the joint density of the test statistics under the null hypothesis and Monte Carlo simulations to obtain a p value using this kernel density. We prove that under some regularity conditions, the estimated p value of our test procedure is a consistent estimate of the true p value. The proposed testing procedure is applied to tests for autocorrelation in an observed time series, for normality, and for model misspecification through the information matrix. We find that our testing procedure has correct or nearly correct sizes and good powers, particular for more complicated testing problems. We believe it is the first good method for calculating the overall p value for a vector of test statistics based on simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxwell L. King & Xibin Zhang & Muhammad Akram, 2011. "A New Procedure For Multiple Testing Of Econometric Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2011-7
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp7-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horowitz, Joel L., 1994. "Bootstrap-based critical values for the information matrix test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 395-411, April.
    2. Zhang, Xibin & King, Maxwell L. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3009-3031, July.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "A New Form of the Information Matrix Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 145-157, January.
    4. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    5. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Lancaster, Tony, 1984. "The Covariance Matrix of the Information Matrix Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1051-1053, July.
    7. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 1996.
    8. Horowitz, J. L., 1995. "Bootstrap Methods In Econometrics: Theory And Numerical Performance," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Alastair Hall, 1987. "The Information Matrix Test for the Linear Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(2), pages 257-263.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Polak & Maxwell L. King & Xibin Zhang, 2014. "A Model Validation Procedure," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2014. "Testing the Equality of Two Positive-Definite Matrices with Application to Information Matrix Testing," Working papers 2014rwp-67, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrapping; consistency; information matrix test; Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation; multivariate kernel density; normality; serial correlation; test vector;
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