IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v61y2021i5d10.1007_s00181-020-01958-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What’s behind firms’ inflation forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Conflitti

    (Banca d’Italia)

  • Roberta Zizza

    (Banca d’Italia)

Abstract

On what do firms base their expectations about future inflation? We investigate this by exploiting the Survey of Inflation and Growth Expectations carried out by Banca d’Italia and Il Sole 24 Ore on a sample of Italian firms. Several sources of information contribute to shaping short- and long-term expectations, such as media reports, professional forecasts, personal shopping experience, the inflation experienced when dealing with suppliers and the contract collective bargaining agreements. We find that firms’ inflation expectations are significantly affected by wage increases; being treated with the information on past inflation also plays a part. By estimating a price pass-through of wages at the firm level, we also argue that the process of prices’ adjustment following a contract renewal matters for shaping the view of entrepreneurs on consumer prices at the macro-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Conflitti & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "What’s behind firms’ inflation forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2449-2475, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01958-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01958-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-020-01958-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-020-01958-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordstrom Skans, 2012. "Evaluating Microfoundations for Aggregate Price Rigidities: Evidence from Matched Firm-Level Data on Product Prices and Unit Labor Cost," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1571-1595, June.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    3. Lena Boneva & James Cloyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2016. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 161-195, September.
    4. Zizza, Roberta & Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, 2017. "Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption," Working Paper Series 2013, European Central Bank.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    6. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli, 2011. "Leaving home and housing prices. The experience of Italian youth emancipation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1101, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Serafín Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2017. "New information and inflation expectations among firms," Documentos de trabajo 2017013, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    8. Ioana A. Duca & José M. Montero & Marianna Riggi & Roberta Zizza, 2017. "I will survive. Pricing strategies of financially distressed firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1106, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    10. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    11. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    13. Sohei Kaihatsu & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2016. "Firms' Inflation Expectations and Wage-setting Behaviors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    14. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1, July-Dece.
    16. Salvatore Muzzicato & Roberto Sabbatini & Francesco Zollino, 2008. "Prices of residential property in Italy: constructing a new indicator," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 17, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Ernest Gnan & Johannes Langthaler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "Shocks, the Crisis and Uncertainty about Future Inflation: Theory and Evidence for the Euro Area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 26-52.
    18. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Bottone & Cristina Conflitti & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Firms' inflation expectations and pricing strategies during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    3. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2021. "Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," NBER Working Papers 29376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    5. Stefano Neri & Guido Bulligan & Sara Cecchetti & Francesco Corsello & Andrea Papetti & Marianna Riggi & Concetta Rondinelli & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 712, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.
    7. Marco Bottone & Alex Tagliabracci & Giordano Zevi, 2021. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Sara Cecchetti & Davide Fantino & Alessandro Notarpietro & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci & Andrea Tiseno & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: indicators, analyses and models used at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 612, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Business cycle synchronization or business cycle transmission? The effect of the German slowdown on the Italian economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1346, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci, 2022. "Price rigidities, input costs, and inflation expectations: understanding firms’ pricing decisions from micro data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 733, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristina Conflitti & Roberta Zizza, 2018. "What�s behind firms� inflation forecasts?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    3. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.
    4. Marco Bottone & Alex Tagliabracci & Giordano Zevi, 2021. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2021. "Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," NBER Working Papers 29376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frache, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Turen, Javier, 2024. "Belief-dependent pricing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    9. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    10. Munday, Tim & Brookes, James, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    11. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    12. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    13. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2020. "How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey," Working Papers 15, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    14. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    15. Adriana Grasso & Tiziano Ropele, 2018. "Firms’ inflation expectations and investment plans," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Bouche Paul, & Gerardin Mathilde, & Gautier Erwan, Savignac Frédérique & Savignac Frédérique., 2021. "Measuring firms’ inflation expectations [Mesurer les anticipations d’inflation des entreprises]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 236.
    18. Hunziker, Hans-Ueli & Raggi, Christian & Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina & Zanetti, Attilio, 2022. "The impact of guidance, short-term dynamics and individual characteristics on firms’ long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Baumann, Ursel & Ferrando, Annalisa & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Reinelt, Timo, 2024. "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 17015, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Bholat, David & Broughton, Nida & Ter Meer, Janna & Walczak, Eryk, 2019. "Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Survey data; Wages; Information rigidity; Price pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01958-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.