IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v39y2020i7p1001-1024.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Joscha Beckmann
  • Robert L. Czudaj

Abstract

This paper focuses on the expectation formation process of professional forecasters by relying on survey data on forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3‐month interest rates for a broad set of countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by allowing for cross‐country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are often in line with the Taylor rule and identify significant expectation spillovers from monetary policy in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2020. "Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1001-1024, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:39:y:2020:i:7:p:1001-1024
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2675
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2675
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2675?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
    2. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, May.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    5. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina‐Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
    6. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    7. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Predictability of Output Growth and Inflation: A Multi-Horizon Survey Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 397-410, July.
    8. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    10. Lena Boneva & James Cloyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2016. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 161-195, September.
    11. Colin Gray, 2013. "Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 173-184, June.
    12. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    13. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Do people understand monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-123.
    14. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Who believes in the Taylor principle? Evidence from the Livingston survey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-98.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
    16. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
    17. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
    18. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
    19. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    20. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    21. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    22. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    23. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    24. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    25. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    26. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
    27. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-144, May.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    30. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    31. Jean-Alexandre Vaglio & Dorian Henricot & Juraj Falath & Marc de la Barrera, 2017. "The Impact of Forward Guidance on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the ECB," Working Papers 1010, Barcelona School of Economics.
    32. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    33. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    34. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    35. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Corrigendum: Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 283-283, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    2. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova, 2022. "What drives updates of inflation expectations? A Bayesian VAR analysis for the G‐7 countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2748-2765, September.
    4. In Choi, 2019. "Unit Root Tests for Dependent Micropanels," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 145-167, June.
    5. Christoph Hanck, 2013. "An Intersection Test for Panel Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 183-203, February.
    6. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2015. "Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(2), pages 161-187, April.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christoph Hanck, 2010. "Are PPP tests erratically behaved? Some panel evidence," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 203-221.
    8. Michele Manna & Stefano Nobili, 2023. "Banks' holdings of and trading in government bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 257-283, January.
    9. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    11. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    12. repec:zbw:rwirep:0434 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ahmet Ihsan Kaya & Lutfi Erden & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2022. "Detecting capital flow surges in developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3510-3530, July.
    14. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    15. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pepin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2014. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING OLD AND NEW GENERATIONS OF PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Working Papers hal-00959475, HAL.
    16. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "An intersection test for panel unit roots," Technical Reports 2008,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    17. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    19. Hassler Uwe & Werkmann Verena, 2014. "Multiple Comparisons and Joint Significance in Panel Unit Root Testing with Evidence on International Interest Rate Linkage," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(1), pages 23-43, February.
    20. Pan, Wei-Fong & Wang, Xinjie & Yang, Shanxiang, 2019. "Debt maturity, leverage, and political uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Uwe Hassler & Matei Demetrescu & Adina Tarcolea, 2011. "Asymptotic normal tests for integration in panels with cross-dependent units," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(2), pages 187-204, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:39:y:2020:i:7:p:1001-1024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.