IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mod/recent/104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Common Macroeconomic Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Antonella Cavallo
  • Antonio Ribba

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of common macroeconomic shocks in shaping business cycle fluctuations in a group of Euro-area countries. In particular, by using the structural (near)VAR methodology, we investigate the effect of area-wide shocks, with particular attention to monetary policy shocks. The main conclusion is that: (a) contractionary monetary policy shocks cause similar recessionary effects in all countries; (b) as far as business cycle fluctuations are concerned, there is a separation into two distinct groups of countries, with a first group including the biggest European economies in which business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by common, area-wide shocks and a second one, including Greece, Ireland and Portugal, in which the national shocks play, instead, a much greater role

Suggested Citation

  • Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2014. "Common Macroeconomic Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Euro Area Countries," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 104, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:recent:104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://155.185.68.2/campusone/web_dep/Recentpaper/recent-wp104.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Freytag, Andreas & Keil, Jonas & Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The credibility of monetary policy announcements: Empirical evidence for OECD countries since the 1960s," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 217-227.
    4. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    5. Antonio Ribba, 2012. "The federal funds rate and the conduction of the international orchestra," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2983-2990.
    6. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
    7. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    8. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 370-406.
    9. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    10. Chiara Scotti, 2011. "A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 37-78, September.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    13. Martina Cecioni & Stefano Neri, 2011. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: has it changed and why?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 808, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    15. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    16. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s decision rule," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 135-160, October.
    18. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
    19. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    20. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    21. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    23. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March.
    24. Axel Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2011. "Changes in euro area monetary transmission?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 131-145.
    25. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    27. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2014. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1048-1065.
    28. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
    29. Tim Berg, 2012. "Did monetary or technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 693-722, October.
    30. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2014. "Towards an explanation of cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 66-84.
    31. repec:mod:depeco:0022 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    33. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.
    34. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, February.
    35. Jakob Haan & Helge Berger (ed.), 2010. "The European Central Bank at Ten," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-14237-6, March.
    36. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    37. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    38. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    39. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle, 2013. "Price dispersion and the euro: Micro heterogeneity and macro implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 70-86.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," Working Papers hal-03792522, HAL.
    3. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanović, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Review," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(1), March.
    4. Dominguez-Torres, Helena & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2020. "Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 56-76.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as15 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.
    9. Jesús Ferreiro & Catalina Gálvez & Carmen Gómez & Ana González, 2017. "Economic Crisis and Convergence in the Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(2), pages 223-244, March.
    10. Dallari, Pietro & Ribba, Antonio, 2020. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 218-232.
    11. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," AMSE Working Papers 2222, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    12. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2020. "The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 191-211, January.
    13. Tania Karamisheva, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 17-38.
    14. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 114, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as16 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0057, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    18. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    19. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2019. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy and Government Spending Shocks on Unemployment in the Peripheral Euro Area Countries," Department of Economics 0143, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    20. Theron Shumba & Sophia Mukorera, 2023. "Monetary Policy Implications on Macroeconomic Performance in the Common Monetary Area: A Panel-SVAR Framework," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    21. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    22. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    2. Dallari, Pietro & Ribba, Antonio, 2020. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 218-232.
    3. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2020. "The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 191-211, January.
    4. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    5. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "The Econometric Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of the Shock of Monetary Policy for the Russian Economy [Эконометрическая Оценка Макроэкономических Эффектов Шока Денежно-Кредитной Политики ," Working Papers 2133, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    7. Antonio Ribba, 2014. "Sources of unemployment fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the last decade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 681-694.
    8. Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "SVARs Identification Through Bounds on the Forecast Error Variance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1291-1301, June.
    9. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2019. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy and Government Spending Shocks on Unemployment in the Peripheral Euro Area Countries," Department of Economics 0143, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    11. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    14. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    15. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 114, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    16. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jørn I. Halvorsen, 2014. "How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 208-232, April.
    17. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    18. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Uncertain identification," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-123, January.
    19. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 197-221, March.
    20. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0057, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle Fluctuations; Euro area; Common Shocks; Near-Structural VARs.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:recent:104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demodit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.