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Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU

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  • Antonio Ribba
  • Pietro Dallari

Abstract

In this paper we aim to investigate the effects of several types of shocks on unemployment in peripheral European countries under the EMU. We use a structural near-VAR model to account for the supranational conduct of monetary policy on the one hand, and domestic fiscal policy and financial shocks on the other hand. Our main findings are: (i) the unemployment multipliers of government spending shocks are higher than the ones associated with government revenues shocks, and they vary across countries; (ii) instability in the unemployment responses over time is marked, with evidence that a regime shift took place in some countries since 2007; (iii) fiscal and financial shocks are not among the long-term drivers of unemployment, but instead a more important role is played by Euro area-wide shocks, with a pre-eminent role for the common monetary policy shock.

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  • Antonio Ribba & Pietro Dallari, 2016. "Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU," EcoMod2016 9245, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:009007:9245
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greece; Ireland; Italy; Portugal; Spain.; Business cycles; Macroeconometric modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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