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Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model

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  • MARTIN MANDLER
  • MICHAEL SCHARNAGL
  • UTE VOLZ

Abstract

We study cross‐country differences in monetary policy transmission across the largest euro area economies (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) using a large Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with endogenous prior selection. Drawing on the posterior distributions of the cross‐country differences in impulse responses and on other tests, we find real output and the money supply to respond more strongly in Germany to monetary policy than in the other countries. Whereas, the price level response is strongest in Spain and weakest in Germany. Longer‐term interest rates react more strongly in Germany and France than in Italy and Spain.

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  • Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:2-3:p:627-649
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12859
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    2. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    3. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Kimoon Jeong & Jiseob Kim, 2023. "One Monetary Policy and Two Bank Lending Standards: A Tale of Two Europes," Working papers 2023rwp-209, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    5. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2020. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments VAR Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 97-136, December.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    10. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    11. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    12. Manuel Rupprecht, 2020. "Income and wealth of euro area households in times of ultra-loose monetary policy: stylised facts from new national and financial accounts data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 281-302, May.
    13. Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno, 2024. "Die Grenzen der EZB-Prognosen," Working Papers 0747, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. George N. Apostolakis & Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2023. "Macro‐financial effects of monetary policy easing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 715-738, April.
    15. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
    18. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR," Papers 2302.14114, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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