IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/vpaper/1041.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Vaubel, Roland

Abstract

Public choice analysis can be helpful in predicting the course of European monetary integration and policy. The median (or decisive) voter theorem, the theory of the political business cycle and the economic theory of bureaucracy are all applicable. The purpose of this paper is to explain and predict the behaviour of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Council of Ministers on the basis of the available empirical evidence. Section 2 relies on the median voter theorem to derive predictions for the inflation rate of the euro. It shows that inflation rates have to be explained by the voters' sensitivity to inflation rather than the independence of central bankers and that the French members of the ECB Council hold the median position in terms of past inflation, voters' sensitivity to inflation and predicted or simulated preferred inflation. However, if the historical real exchange rate change is extrapolated and if failure to agree on an Executive Board is considered a possibility, the Belgian member of the ECB Council is the inflation median.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaubel, Roland, 1999. "The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective," Discussion Papers 570, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1041/1/570.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Vaubel, Roland, 1978. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community : A new approach to the determination of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 319-339, May.
    3. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1997. "Assessing convergence to purchasing power parity: a panel study for ten OECD countries," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1719, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Iversen, Torben, 1999. "The Political Economy of Inflation: Bargaining Structure or Central Bank Independence? Erratum," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(3-4), pages 285-306, December.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-5.
    6. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How will the euro behave ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9704, CEPREMAP.
    7. Oatley, Thomas, 1999. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Corporatism, Partisanship, and Alternative Indices of Central Bank Independence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 98(3-4), pages 399-413, March.
    8. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-359, July.
    9. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1997. "Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 335-362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seignorage Wealth in EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 134, CESifo.
    11. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    12. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May.
    13. Paul Degrauwe & Hans Dewachter & Yunus Aksoy, 1998. "The European Central Bank: Decision Rules and Macroeconomic Performance," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces9834, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    14. de Haan, Jakob & van 't Hag, Gert Jan, 1995. "Variation in Central Bank Independence across Countries: Some Provisional Empirical Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(3-4), pages 335-351, December.
    15. Francesco Lippi, 1999. "Central Bank Independence, Targets and Credibility," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1615.
    16. Iversen, Torben, 1999. "The Political Economy of Inflation: Bargaining Structure or Central Bank Independence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 237-258, June.
    17. Martin, Philippe, 1998. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-482, December.
    18. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1.
    20. Berthold, Norbert, 1998. "Real wage rigidities, fiscal policy, and the stability of EMU in the transition phase," Discussion Paper Series 22, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    21. Rob Roy McGregor, 1996. "Fomc Voting Behavior And Electoral Cycles: Partisan Ideology And Partisan Loyalty," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 17-32, March.
    22. Susan M. Collins & Francesco Giavazzi, 1993. "Attitudes toward Inflation and the Viability of Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from the EMS," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 547-586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Masciandaro, Donato & Spinelli, Franco, 1994. "Central Banks' Independence: Institutional Determinants, Rankings and Central Bankers' Views," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 434-443, November.
    24. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "Reply to Berger and Woitek," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 823-827, December.
    25. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1998-02, CEPII research center.
    26. Byung Hee Soh, 1986. "Political Business Cycles in Industrialized Democratic Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 31-46, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angeloni, Ignazio, 1999. "The role of a regional bank in a system of central banks : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 73-77, December.
    2. Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten," Working Papers in Economics 1999,4, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    3. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries: a comparative indicator approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Maier, Philipp & Bezoen, Saskia, 2004. "Bashing and supporting central banks: the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 923-939, November.
    5. Jose Ripoll, 2003. "National Appointments to Multinational Monetary Policy Making: A Role Conflict?," Macroeconomics 0301009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Iikka Korhonen & Mare Randveer, 2015. "Assessment of the Euros's implications for European economic development," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2000-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    7. Christian Fahrholz & Philipp Mohl, 2004. "EMU-enlargement and the Reshaping of Decision-making within the ECB Governing Council: A Voting-Power Analysis," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp23, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2004.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob De Haan, 2010. "Inflation And Central Bank Independence: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 593-621, September.
    2. Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2002. "Reconsidering central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 653-674, November.
    3. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Carsten Hefeker, 2001. "Do We Really Need Central Bank Independence? A Critical Re- examination," Macroeconomics 0103006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2019. "Behavioral Monetary Policymaking: Economics, Political Economy and Psychology," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 9, pages 285-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Davide Romelli, 2022. "The political economy of reforms in Central Bank design: evidence from a new dataset," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(112), pages 641-688.
    7. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Bruno Sergi, 2012. "The link between central bank independence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe: are the results sensitive to endogeneity issue omitted dynamics and subjectivity bias?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 611-652.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2018. "Beyond the Central Bank Independence Veil: New Evidence," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1871, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Pavel Trunin & Kniazev Dmitriy & Satdarov Alexandr, 2010. "Analysis of independence of the central banks of the Russian Federation, the CIS and East European countries," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 133P.
    10. Kari Heimonen & Aleksandra Maslowska-Jokinen, 2014. "Central bank independence and sovereign debt crisis. Any link?," Discussion Papers 93, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    11. Marcello D'Amato & Barbara Pistoresi & Francesco Salsano, 2009. "On the determinants of Central Bank independence in open economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 107-119.
    12. Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Economic Performance," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 123-156, June.
    13. Marc Quintyn, 2009. "Independent agencies: more than a cheap copy of independent central banks?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 267-295, September.
    14. Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April.
    15. Andrew Hallett & Jan Libich, 2012. "Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 271-297, November.
    16. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    17. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    18. Serhan Cevik & Tianle Zhu, 2020. "Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence And Inflation In The Caribbean," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 375-388, April.
    19. de Jong, Eelke, 2002. "Why are price stability and statutory independence of central banks negatively correlated? The role of culture," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 675-694, November.
    20. Weymark, Diana N., 2007. "Inflation, government transfers, and optimal central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 297-315, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.