IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mmf/mmfc06/161.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hot Money Inflows and Monetary Stability in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Bouvatier

    (Universite Paris 1)

Abstract

Non-foreign direct investment capital inflows in China were particularly strong in 2003 and 2004. They were even stronger than current account surpluses or net foreign direct investment inflows. As a result, the pace of international reserves accumulation in China increased significantly. This paper investigates if the rapid build up of international reserves in 2003 and 2004 was a source of monetary instability in China. The relationship between international reserves and domestic credit is examined with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), estimated on monthly data from March 1995 to December 2005. Empirical results show that this relationship was stable and consistent with monetary stability. Direct and indirect Granger causality tests are implemented to show how the People's Bank of China (PBC) achieved this monetary stability

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Monetary Stability in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 161, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.12478.1154951450.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brissimis, Sophocles N & Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Offsetting Capital Flows and Sterilization: Germany and the ERM," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 63-78, January.
    2. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Woo, Wing Thye, 2002. "Some unorthodox thoughts on China's unorthodox financial sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 388-393, December.
    4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    5. Fung, Hung-Gay & LEUNG, Wai K. & Zhu, Jiang, 2004. "Nondeliverable forward market for Chinese RMB: A first look," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 348-352.
    6. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    7. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Alicia García-Herrero & Sergio Gavilá & Daniel Santabárbara, 2006. "China's Banking Reform: An Assessment of its Evolution and Possible Impact," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 304-363, June.
    10. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    11. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2006. "The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 128-153, March.
    14. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    15. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    16. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Mr. Qing Wang & Mr. Thomas Rumbaugh, 2005. "Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/001, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Lu, Ding, 2004. "China's capability to control its exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 343-347.
    19. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2002. "Rising foreign currency liquidity of banks in China," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2004. "Reserve accumulation: implications for global capital flows and financial markets," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Sep).
    23. Oliver D. Babson & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Tung, Chen-Yuan & Baker, Sam, 2004. "RMB revaluation will serve China's self-interest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-335.
    25. repec:imf:imfops:2004/006 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    27. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1990. "Macroeconomic Models with Equity and Credit Rationing," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 15-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Guonan Ma & Ben S.C. Fung, 2002. "China's asset management corporations," BIS Working Papers 115, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Zhang Xiaopu, 2003. "Capital account management and its outlook in China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 19-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley, 2003. "Opening China’s capital account amid ample dollar liquidity," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 25-34, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Shujie Yao & Chunxia Jiang & Genfu Feng & Dirk Willenbockel, 2007. "WTO challenges and efficiency of Chinese banks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 629-643.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qing-yuan Sui, 2019. "China’s Economic Growth and International Capital Flows," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 121-150, July.
    2. Agyenim Boateng & Vu Hong Thai Nguyen & Min Du & Frank O. Kwabi, 2022. "The impact of CEO compensation and excess reserves on bank risk-taking: the moderating role of monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1575-1598, April.
    3. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ming-Chu & Tsai, Huey-Cherng & Liou, Chia-Ho, 2014. "Hot money effect or foreign exchange exposure? Investigation of the exchange rate exposures of Taiwanese industries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-96.
    4. Ohno, Sanae & Shimizu, Junko, 2015. "Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    6. Thai V. H. Nguyen & Agyenim Boateng & Tra Thi Thu Pham, 2019. "Involuntary excess reserve and heterogeneous transmission of policy rates to bank lending rates in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1023-1044, September.
    7. Mingming Li & Fengming Qin & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Expectation and Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot money inflows in China: How the people's bank of China took up the challenge," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.
    3. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: an agnostic view," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01073825, HAL.
    4. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    5. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 98(3), pages 77-127.
    8. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5512 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    11. Daglis, Theodoros & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2019. "Solar events and economic activity: Evidence from the US Telecommunications industry (1996–2014)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    12. Vladim r Hajko, 2015. "Energy-Gross Domestic Product Nexus: Disaggregated Analysis for the Czech Republic in the Post-Transformation Era," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 869-888.
    13. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5282 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    16. Patrick Withey, 2014. "Energy Use, Income and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Direct and Multi-Horizon Causality in Canada," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 178-188.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5282 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, December.
    19. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    20. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    21. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    22. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    23. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hot money inflows; international reserves; VECM; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.