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Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

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  • Choucri, Nazli
  • Goldsmith, Daniel
  • Madnick, Stuart E.
  • Mistree, Dinsha
  • Morrison, J. Bradley
  • Siegel, Michael

Abstract

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the €جoads€٠generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its €أapacity€٠to withstand these €جoads€٬ on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Choucri, Nazli & Goldsmith, Daniel & Madnick, Stuart E. & Mistree, Dinsha & Morrison, J. Bradley & Siegel, Michael, 2007. "Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability," Working papers 39650, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:39650
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650
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    1. Doyle, Michael W., 1986. "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1151-1169, December.
    2. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
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    1. Giorgio Gallo, 2013. "Conflict Theory, Complexity and Systems Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 156-175, March.
    2. Jelena Ristić Trajković & Verica Krstić & Aleksandra Milovanović & Cristina Sousa Coutinho Calheiros & Mirjana Ćujić & Milica Karanac & Jan K. Kazak & Sara Di Lonardo & Rocío Pineda-Martos & Mari Carm, 2024. "Moving Towards a Holistic Approach to Circular Cities: Obstacles and Perspectives for Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    4. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2012. "Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 172-185, June.

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