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Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

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Abstract

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. At first, we find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results seem to be robust to the chosen group of countries and, in most cases, the sample period. However, the sequential panel selection method reveals that the rejection of the unit root null is due to the stationarity of real GDP in a few countries only. Real GDP is less stationary mostly in fixed exchange rate regimes like the Gold Standard and the Bretton Woods system.

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis & Stilianos Fountas, 2012. "Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data," Discussion Paper Series 2012_09, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Oct 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_09
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    Cited by:

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    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
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    5. Roni Frish, 2016. "Currency Crises and Real Exchange Rate Depreciation," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.01, Bank of Israel.
    6. Ihsaanul, Ahmad & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Would the volatility of oil price affect the GDP of a country ? Singaporean evidence," MPRA Paper 112462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gregori, Tullio, 2021. "Protectionism and international trade: A long-run view," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Maria Tsafa-Karakatsanidou & Stilianos Fountas, 2018. "Testing for Inflation Convergence Among European Union Countries: A Panel Approach," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 17-37.
    9. Hanifi FIRAT, 2016. "Is Real Gdp Stationary? Evidence From Some Unit Root Tests For The Advanced Economies," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 60-80, DECEMBER.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real GDP stationarity; cross-sectional dependence; CIPS test; sequential panel selection method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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