IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lui/lleewp/16126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Semiparametric Model for the analysis of regional economic data

Author

Listed:
  • Román Mínguez

    (University of Castilla-La Mancha)

  • María L.

    (Carlos III University)

  • Roberto Basile

    (Second University of Naples)

Abstract

In this paper we propose an extension of the semiparametric P-Spline model to spatio-temporal data including a non-parametric trend, as well as a spatial lag of the dependent variable. This model is able to simultaneously control for func- tional form bias, spatial dependence bias, spatial heterogeneity bias, and omitted time-related factors bias. Specically, we consider a spatio-temporal ANOVA model disaggregating the trend in spatial and temporal main eects, and second and third order interactions between them. The model can include both linear and non-linear effects of the covariates, and other additional xed or random eects. Recent algorithms based on spatial anisotropic penalties (SAP) are used to estimate all the parameters in a closed form without the need of multidimensional optimization. An empirical case compares the performance of this model against alternatives models like spatial panel data models.

Suggested Citation

  • Román Mínguez & María L. & Roberto Basile, 2016. "Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Semiparametric Model for the analysis of regional economic data," Working Papers LuissLab 16126, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    • Handle: RePEc:lui:lleewp:16126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.luiss.it/RePEc/pdf/lleewp/16126.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aragon, Y. & Haughton, D. & Haughton, J. & Leconte, E. & Malin, E. & Ruiz-Gazen, A. & Thomas-Agnan. C., 1999. "Explaining the Pattern of Regional Unemployment: the Case of the Midi-Pyrenees Region," Papers 99.519, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    2. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    5. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    6. Natalia Bailey & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "A Two‐Stage Approach to Spatio‐Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross‐Sectional Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 249-280, January.
    7. Maria Francesca Cracolici & Miranda Cuffaro & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Geographical Distribution of Unemployment: An Analysis of Provincial Differences in Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 649-670, December.
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    9. Lee, Dae-Jin & Durbán, María & Eilers, Paul, 2013. "Efficient two-dimensional smoothing with P-spline ANOVA mixed models and nested bases," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 22-37.
    10. Stephen T. Marston, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79.
    11. repec:bla:kyklos:v:50:y:1997:i:2:p:221-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Thomas Kneib & Ludwig Fahrmeir, 2006. "Structured Additive Regression for Categorical Space–Time Data: A Mixed Model Approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 109-118, March.
    13. Millo, Giovanni, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimation of spatially and serially correlated panels with random effects," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 914-933.
    14. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 1997. "The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-606.
    15. Vicente Rios Ibañez, 2014. "What drives regional unemployment convergence?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p924, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Annette S. Zeilstra & J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Regional and National Unemployment Differentials in the European Union," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1739-1755, October.
    17. Su, Liangjun & Jin, Sainan, 2012. "Sieve estimation of panel data models with cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 34-47.
    18. Burridge, Peter & Gordon, Ian Richard, 1981. "Unemployment in the British Metropolitan Labour Areas," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 274-297, July.
    19. Eleonora Patacchini & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 169-191, March.
    20. Lottmann, Franziska, 2012. "Spatial dependencies in German matching functions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 27-41.
    21. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jim Taylor & Steve Bradley, 1997. "Unemployment in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Disparities in Germany, Italy and the UK," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 221-245, May.
    23. A. P. Thirlwall, 1966. "Regional Unemployment As A Cyclical Phenomenon1," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 205-219, June.
    24. Basile, Roberto & Durbán, María & Mínguez, Román & María Montero, Jose & Mur, Jesús, 2014. "Modeling regional economic dynamics: Spatial dependence, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 229-245.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Román Mínguez & Roberto Basile & María Durbán, 2020. "An alternative semiparametric model for spatial panel data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(4), pages 669-708, December.
    2. Franziska Lottmann, 2012. "Regional Unemployment in Germany: a spatial panel data analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa12p53, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Halleck Vega, Solmaria & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2016. "A regional unemployment model simultaneously accounting for serial dynamics, spatial dependence and common factors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-95.
    4. Ana María Díaz, 2016. "Spatial Unemployment Differentials in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 76, February.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lottmann, Franziska, 2012. "Explaining regional unemployment differences in Germany: A spatial panel data analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Vicente Rios Ibañez, 2014. "What drives regional unemployment convergence?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p924, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
    9. Enrique López-Bazo & Elisabet Motellón, 2013. "The regional distribution of unemployment: What do micro-data tell us?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 383-405, June.
    10. Sarantis LOLOS & Evangelia PAPAPETROU, 2012. "Unemployment disparities and persistence Assessing the evidence from Greek regions, 1981-2008," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 69-90.
    11. Semerikova, Elena, 2014. "Unemployment in East and West Germany: Spatial panel data analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 35(3), pages 107-132.
    12. Maria Francesca Cracolici & Miranda Cuffaro & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Geographical Distribution of Unemployment: An Analysis of Provincial Differences in Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 649-670, December.
    13. Elhorst, J. Paul, 2000. "The Mystery Of Regional Unemployment Differentialsa Survey Of Theoretical And Empirical Explanations," ERSA conference papers ersa00p60, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
    15. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 709-748, December.
    16. repec:dgr:rugsom:00c06 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    18. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    19. Laura Helena Kivi, 2019. "Spatial Interactions Of Regional Labour Markets In Europe," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 116, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    20. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    21. Bailey, N. & Ditzen, J. & Holly, S., 2025. "My neighbour's neighbour is not my neighbour: Instrumentation and causality in spatial models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2501, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    : spatio-temporal trend; mixed models; P-splines; PS-ANOVA; SAR; spatial panel.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lui:lleewp:16126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giovanna Vallanti The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Giovanna Vallanti to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deluiit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.