IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2000-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Allan D. Brunner

Abstract

This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Allan D. Brunner, 2000. "El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?," IMF Working Papers 2000/203, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3910
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    2. Maddala, G S, et al, 1997. "Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 90-100, January.
    3. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
    4. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    5. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    6. Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long‐Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Sonneveld & M. Keyzer & P. Adegbola & S. Pande, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in West Africa: An Assessment for the Oueme River Basin in Benin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 553-579, January.
    2. Thanarak Laosuthi & David D. Selover, 2007. "Does El Nino Affect Business Cycles," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 21-42, Winter.
    3. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J O’Donnell, 2018. "A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    5. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fabrice Ochou & Philippe Quirion, 2022. "Impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture : une quantification du biais de prix dans les approches économétriques," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 73(1), pages 43-67.
    8. Fisher, Anthony, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture Reconsidered," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt33v2d7vc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    9. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    10. Patrick S. Ward & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2014. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial sample selection model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 199-226.
    11. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    12. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    13. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Climate-Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Markets: Combining a Micro-Level Structural Land-Use Model and a Market-Level Equilibrium Model," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205128, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Beáta Stehlíková & Erika Fecková Škrabuľáková & Gabriela Bogdanovská & Matúš Fecko, 2024. "Evaluation of Heating Efficiency Increase Using a Simple Heat Recovery Unit," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-13, June.
    15. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    16. Manamboba Mitélama Balaka & Koffi Yovo, 2023. "Effet du changement climatique sur la production vivriere au Togo," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(1), pages 11-23, March.
    17. Catherine Benjamin & Ewen Gallic, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-16, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    18. Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6w7242cj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    19. Fleischer, Aliza & Lichtman, Ivgenia & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture: Will warming be harmful?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 508-515, April.
    20. Cui, Xiaomeng, 2020. "Climate change and adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from US cropping patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.