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Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • A. Timmermann

    (Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie)

  • J. Oberhuber

    (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum)

  • A. Bacher

    (Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie)

  • M. Esch

    (Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie)

  • M. Latif

    (Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie)

  • E. Roeckner

    (Max-Planck-Institut fr Meteorologie)

Abstract

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation1. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also influences the entire global climate system and affects the societies and economies of manycountries2. ENSO can be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced ‘greenhouse’ warming affects, or will affect, ENSO3. Several global climate models have been applied to transient greenhouse-gas-induced warming simulations to address this question4,6, but the results have been debated owing to the inability of the models to fully simulate ENSO (because of their coarse equatorial resolution)7. Here we present results from a global climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean result.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Timmermann & J. Oberhuber & A. Bacher & M. Esch & M. Latif & E. Roeckner, 1999. "Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6729), pages 694-697, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:398:y:1999:i:6729:d:10.1038_19505
    DOI: 10.1038/19505
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    Cited by:

    1. LanFen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2009. "How Volatile is ENSO?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-635, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    3. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Lan-Fen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 1, pages 1-12.
    5. Ana heryana & Dwi Setyawan & Budhi Setiawan & Dadang Purnama, 2015. "Flood Hazard Analysis as Impact of Climate Change on Slum Areas in Palembang, South Sumatera," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 218-218, January.
    6. Zhu, Yichen & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Climate Anomalies and Its Impact on U.S. Corn and Soybean Prices," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315271, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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