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Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

Author

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  • Tanaka, Kiyoyasu

Abstract

Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanaka, Kiyoyasu, 2016. "Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia," IDE Discussion Papers 601, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper601
    as

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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/37585/files/IDP000601_001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Álvaro Matias & Peter Nijkamp & Manuela Sarmento (ed.), 2009. "Advances in Tourism Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-7908-2124-6, July.
    2. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
    3. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2012. "The Economics of Tourism Destinations," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: The Economics of Tourism Destinations, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 73-130, Springer.
    4. Carlos Santos & Gualter Couto & Pedro Miguel Pimentel, 2009. "Forecasting Hotel Overnights in the Autonomous Region of the Azores," Springer Books, in: Álvaro Matias & Peter Nijkamp & Manuela Sarmento (ed.), Advances in Tourism Economics, chapter 0, pages 175-186, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Econometric model; Tourism demand; Visitor arrivals; Forecasting; VAR; Cambodia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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