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Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Bonham

    (UH-Manoa Department of Economics, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)

  • Peter Fuleky

    (UH-Manoa Department of Economics and University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)

  • James Jones

    (UH-Manoa Department of Economics and University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)

  • Ashley Hirashima

    (UH-Manoa Department of Economics and University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)

Abstract

We evaluate the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. Our results indicate that including timely intra-period data into the forecasting process results in significant gains in predictive accuracy compared to relying exclusively on low frequency aggregates. Anticipating growing popularity of these tools among empirical analysts, we o↵er practical implementation guidelines to facilitate their adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Bonham & Peter Fuleky & James Jones & Ashley Hirashima, 2015. "Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates," Working Papers 2015-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    • Handle: RePEc:hae:wpaper:2015-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric W. K. See-To & Eric W. T. Ngai, 2018. "Customer reviews for demand distribution and sales nowcasting: a big data approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 415-431, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcast; Ragged edge; Mixed frequency models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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