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Economic Convergence in the EU: A Complexity Approach

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  • Gül Ertan Özgüzer

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

  • Ayla Ogus Binatli

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

Abstract

This paper tests, in the context of the EU countries, the evidence presented by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) that economic complexity indicator is a good predictor of economic growth. Our results suggest that a group of countries in the EU with an economic complexity exceeding a certain threshold tends to converge to the levels of income corresponding to their measured complexity. On the other hand, current account deficits in interaction with economic complexity have important effects on growth for a second group of countries with lower levels of complexity. We also find that income convergence is faster within the first group. Therefore, we argue that convergence is much faster for countries whose economic complexity exceeds a certain threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Gül Ertan Özgüzer & Ayla Ogus Binatli, 2015. "Economic Convergence in the EU: A Complexity Approach," Working Papers 1503, Izmir University of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:1503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Stojkov, Aleksandar & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Europe as a convergence engine -- heterogeneity and investment opportunities in emerging Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5837, The World Bank.
    4. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    5. Rumen Dobrinsky & Peter Havlik, 2014. "Economic Convergence and Structural Change: the Role of Transition and EU Accession," wiiw Research Reports 395, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    10. Ingianni, Andrea & Žd’árek, Václav, 2009. "Real Convergence in the New Member States: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 294-320.
    11. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    12. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    14. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6016.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ovidiu Stoica & Angela Roman & Delia-Elena Diaconașu, 2019. "Real Convergence and European Integration with Focus on the New Member States," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(si), pages 215-228, December.
    2. Freire, Clovis, 2019. "Economic diversification: A model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 13-28.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic complexity; growth; income convergence; European Union; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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