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Measurement Error in Subjective Expectations and the Empirical Content of Economic Models

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  • Drerup, Tilman

    (University of Bonn)

  • Enke, Benjamin

    (Harvard University)

  • Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We argue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which economic models of portfolio choice provide an adequate representation of individual decision processes. In order to explore this conjecture empirically, we estimate a semiparametric double index model on a dataset specifically collected for this purpose. Stock market participation reacts strongly to changes in model parameters for respondents at the lower end of the measurement error distribution; these effects are much less pronounced for individuals at the upper end. Our findings indicate that measurement error in subjective expectations provides useful information to uncover heterogeneity in choice behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von, 2014. "Measurement Error in Subjective Expectations and the Empirical Content of Economic Models," IZA Discussion Papers 8535, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8535
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "Marriage, children, and labor supply: Beliefs and outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 148-164.
    2. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Fredj Jawadi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Wael Louhichi, 2018. "Measurement errors in stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 287-306, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market participation; subjective expectations; measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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