IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp623.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of Job Creation and Destruction for University Graduates: Why a Rising Unemployment Rate Can Be Misleading

Author

Listed:
  • Cardoso, Ana Rute

    (IAE Barcelona (CSIC))

  • Ferreira, Priscila

    (University of Minho)

Abstract

This study uses a matched employer-employee data set on the Portuguese economy to analyze systematic information on job creation and job destruction for university graduates, compared to other groups of workers. We find that the unemployment rate can provide a misleading idea of the dynamics in labor demand and of the employment prospects for university graduates. The pessimistic view that seems to be popular nowadays, stating that the expansion of higher education may have gone too far and that investment in a higher education degree has become a too risky business, possibly not worthwhile, as employers are no longer keen on recruiting newly graduate workers, does not find support in the empirical evidence for the Portuguese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cardoso, Ana Rute & Ferreira, Priscila, 2002. "The Dynamics of Job Creation and Destruction for University Graduates: Why a Rising Unemployment Rate Can Be Misleading," IZA Discussion Papers 623, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp623
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp623.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paulo Guimarães & Octávio Figueirdo & Douglas Woodward, 2003. "A Tractable Approach to the Firm Location Decision Problem," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 201-204, February.
    2. Aslan Zorlu, 2003. "Do ethnicity and sex matter in pay? Analyses of 8 ethnic groups in the Dutch labour market," NIMA Working Papers 21, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    3. Anabela Botelho & Mark A. Hirsch & Elisabet E. Rutstrom, 2000. "Culture, nationality and demographics in ultimatum games," NIMA Working Papers 7, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    4. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pinto, Ligia M. & Harrison, Glenn W., 2003. "Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 911-930, December.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter, 1992. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 354-359, May.
    7. Anabela Botelho & Glenn W. Harrison & Marc A. Hirsch & Elisabet E. Rutstrom, 2001. "Bargaining behavior, demographics and nationality: a reconsideration of the experimental evidence," NIMA Working Papers 16, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    8. Natália Barbosa, 2003. "What drives new firms into an industry? An integrative model of entry," NIMA Working Papers 23, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    9. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto & Isabel Rodrigues, 2003. "How to comply with environmental regulations? The role of information," NIMA Working Papers 25, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    10. Elvira Lima & David K. Whynes, 2003. "Finance and performance of Portuguese hospitals," NIMA Working Papers 20, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    11. Cécile Wetzels & Aslan Zorlu, 2003. "Wage effects of motherhood: a double selection approach," NIMA Working Papers 22, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    12. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John & Schuh, Scott, 1996. "Small Business and Job Creation: Dissecting the Myth and Reassessing the Facts," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 297-315, August.
    13. Miguel Portela, 2001. "The impact of segregation on wage inequality: a look at recruitment and pay policies at the firm level," NIMA Working Papers 8, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    14. Belzil, Christian, 2000. "Job Creation and Job Destruction, Worker Reallocation, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 183-203, April.
    15. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, September.
    16. Botelho, Anabela & Harrison, Glenn W. & Pinto, Lígia M. Costa & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2009. "Testing static game theory with dynamic experiments: A case study of public goods," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 253-265.3, September.
    17. Pedro P. Barros & Clara E. Dismuke, 2000. "Hospital production in a national health service: the physician's dilemma," NIMA Working Papers 6, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    18. Natália Barbosa & Helen Louri, 2005. "Corporate Performance: Does Ownership Matter? A Comparison of Foreign- and Domestic-Owned Firms in Greece and Portugal," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 27(1), pages 73-102, August.
    19. Cardoso, Ana & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Emplo," CEPR Discussion Papers 2844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2005. "The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 113-151, December.
    21. Anabela Botelho & Glenn W. Harrison & Lígia Costa Pinto & Elisabet E. Rutstrom & Paula Veiga, 2005. "Discounting in developing countries: a pilot experiment in Timor-Leste," NIMA Working Papers 31, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    22. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    23. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    24. Anabela Botelho & Glenn W. Harrison & Lígia Costa Pinto & Elisabet E. Rutstrom, 2005. "Social norms and social choice," NIMA Working Papers 30, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    25. John Baldwin & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger, 1998. "A Comparison Of Job Creation And Job Destruction In Canada And The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 347-356, August.
    26. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, April.
    27. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto, 2000. "Has Portugal gone wireless? Looking back, Looking ahead," NIMA Working Papers 5, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    28. Rosa Branca Esteves & Paulo Guimaraes, 2008. "Price Discrimination and Targeted Advertising: A Welfare Analysis," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(5), pages 41-47, September.
    29. Guimaraes, Paulo & Figueiredo, Octávio & Woodward, Douglas, 2002. "Modeling industrial location decisions in U.S. counties," ERSA conference papers ersa02p060, European Regional Science Association.
    30. Elvira Lima & Teresa J. Esquerdo, 2003. "The economic costs of alcohol misuse in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 24, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    31. Octavio Figueiredo & Paulo Guimaraes & Douglas Woodward, 2001. "Asymmetric information and location," NIMA Working Papers 11, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    32. Anabela Botelho, 2001. "Strategic behavior at trial-The production, reporting, and evaluation of complex evidence," NIMA Working Papers 14, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    33. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2001. "Disentangling the minimum wage puzzle: an analysis of job accessions and separations from a longitudinal matched employer- employee data set," NIMA Working Papers 9, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    34. Paula Veiga & Ronald P. Wilder, 2006. "Maternal smoking during pregnancy and birthweight - A propensity score matching approach," NIMA Working Papers 32, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    35. Paula Veiga, 2005. "Income-related health inequality in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 28, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    36. Joao Cerejeira da Silva, 2002. "Identification of the Portuguese industrial districts," NIMA Working Papers 17, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2002. "Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(15), pages 993-996.
    2. Orlanda Tavares & Cristina Sin & Carla Sá & Francisco Pereira & Alberto Amaral, 2023. "Graduate employment: Does the type of higher education institution matter?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1140-1156, October.
    3. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2005. "The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 113-151, December.
    4. Paulo Guimarães, 2002. "The state of Portuguese research in economics: an analysis based on publications in international journals," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(1), pages 3-25, March.
    5. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, Ligia Costa, 2004. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education: results of a controlled experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 645-653, December.
    6. Pinto, Ligia M. & Harrison, Glenn W., 2003. "Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 911-930, December.
    7. Anabela Botelho, 2001. "Strategic behavior at trial-The production, reporting, and evaluation of complex evidence," NIMA Working Papers 14, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    8. Joao Cerejeira da Silva, 2002. "Identification of the Portuguese industrial districts," NIMA Working Papers 17, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    9. Elvira Lima & Teresa J. Esquerdo, 2003. "The economic costs of alcohol misuse in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 24, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    10. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2001. "Disentangling the minimum wage puzzle: an analysis of job accessions and separations from a longitudinal matched employer- employee data set," NIMA Working Papers 9, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    11. Heshmati, Almas, 2007. "Labor Market Policy Options of the Kurdistan Regional Government," IZA Discussion Papers 3247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Elvira Lima & David K. Whynes, 2003. "Finance and performance of Portuguese hospitals," NIMA Working Papers 20, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    13. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2005. "The effect of immigration on wages in three european countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 113-151, December.
    2. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, Ligia Costa, 2004. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education: results of a controlled experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 645-653, December.
    3. Paulo Guimarães, 2002. "The state of Portuguese research in economics: an analysis based on publications in international journals," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(1), pages 3-25, March.
    4. Elvira Lima & Teresa J. Esquerdo, 2003. "The economic costs of alcohol misuse in Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 24, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    5. Anabela Botelho & Ligia Costa Pinto, 2002. "Hypothetical, real, and predicted real willingness to pay in open-ended surveys: experimental results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(15), pages 993-996.
    6. Elvira Lima & David K. Whynes, 2003. "Finance and performance of Portuguese hospitals," NIMA Working Papers 20, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    7. Anabela Botelho, 2001. "Strategic behavior at trial-The production, reporting, and evaluation of complex evidence," NIMA Working Papers 14, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    8. Joao Cerejeira da Silva, 2002. "Identification of the Portuguese industrial districts," NIMA Working Papers 17, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    9. Anabela Botelho & Lígia Costa Pinto & Miguel Portela & Antonio Silva, 2001. "The determinants of success in university entrance," NIMA Working Papers 13, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    10. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2001. "Disentangling the minimum wage puzzle: an analysis of job accessions and separations from a longitudinal matched employer- employee data set," NIMA Working Papers 9, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    11. Pinto, Ligia M. & Harrison, Glenn W., 2003. "Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 911-930, December.
    12. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
    13. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper series 27_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. repec:rim:rimwps:27-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2001. "The interaction of firing costs and on-the-job search: an application of a search theoretic model to the Spanish labour market," Working Papers 0102, Banco de España.
    16. Catherine Armington & Alicia Robb & Zoltan J Acs, 1999. "Measures Of Job Flow Dynamics In The U.S.," Working Papers 99-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Gartell, Marie & Jans, Ann-Christin & Persson, Helena, 2010. "The importance of education for the reallocation of labor: Evidence from Swedish linked employer-employee data 1986-2002," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 206-214, January.
    18. Ligia Alba Melo & Carlos Andrés Ballesteros, 2013. "Creación, destrucción y reasignación del empleo en el sector manufacturero colombiano," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 281-311, January-J.
    19. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2010. "The determinants of job creation and destruction: plant-level evidence for Eastern and Western Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 425-444, November.
    20. Julián Messina & Giovanna Vallanti, 2007. "Job Flow Dynamics and Firing Restrictions: Evidence from Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(521), pages 279-301, June.
    21. Andersson, Fredrik, 1999. "Job flows in Swedish manufacturing 1972-1996," Working Paper Series 1999:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gross job flows; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp623. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.