IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp6224.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting Wage Under-reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model

Author

Listed:
  • Elek, Peter

    (Eötvös Lorand University)

  • Köllő, János

    (Institute of Economics, Budapest)

  • Reizer, Balázs

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Szabó, Péter A.

    (Reformed Presbyterian Church of Central and Eastern Europe)

Abstract

We estimate a double hurdle (DH) model of the Hungarian wage distribution assuming censoring at the minimum wage and wage under-reporting (i.e. compensation consisting of the minimum wage, subject to taxation, and an unreported cash supplement). We estimate the probability of under-reporting for minimum wage earners, simulate their genuine earnings and classify them and their employers as 'cheaters' and 'non-cheaters'. In the possession of the classification we check how cheaters and non-cheaters reacted to the introduction of a minimum social security contribution base, equal to 200 per cent of the minimum wage, in 2007. The findings suggest that cheaters were more likely to raise the wages of their minimum wage earners to 200 per cent of the minimum wage thereby reducing the risk of tax audit. Cheating firms also experienced faster average wage growth and slower output growth. The results suggest that the DH model is able to identify the loci of wage under-reporting with some precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Elek, Peter & Köllő, János & Reizer, Balázs & Szabó, Péter A., 2011. "Detecting Wage Under-reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model," IZA Discussion Papers 6224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp6224.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalya Shelkova, 2015. "Low-Wage Labor Markets and the Power of Suggestion," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 61-88, March.
    2. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    3. Robert Moffitt & John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk, 1999. "Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Role of Selection on Observables," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 129-152.
    4. Steven T. Yen & Andrew M. Jones, 1997. "Household Consumption of Cheese: An Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Double-Hurdle Model with Dependent Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 246-251.
    5. Jaanika Meriküll & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Unreported Employment and Envelope Wages in Mid-Transition: Comparing Developments and Causes in the Baltic Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 637-670, December.
    6. Kertesi, Gabor & Köllő, János, 2003. "Fighting “Low Equilibria” by Doubling the Minimum Wage? Hungary’s Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 970, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Konstantin Pashev, 2006. "Presumptive Taxation: Lessons from Bulgaria," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 399-418.
    8. Tonin, Mirco, 2011. "Minimum wage and tax evasion: Theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1635-1651.
    9. Labeaga, Jose M., 1999. "A double-hurdle rational addiction model with heterogeneity: Estimating the demand for tobacco," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 49-72, November.
    10. Richard Dickens & Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1994. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment: Theory and Evidence from the US," NBER Working Papers 4742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Meyer, Robert H & Wise, David A, 1983. "Discontinuous Distributions and Missing Persons: The Minimum Wage and Unemployed Youth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1677-1698, November.
    12. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dickens, Richard & Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment: Theory and Evidence from Britain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, January.
    14. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1994. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Wage Dispersion and Employment: Evidence from the U.K. Wages Councils," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 47(2), pages 319-329, January.
    15. Tonin, Mirco, 2007. "Minimum wage and tax evasion: theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 711, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Juan Dolado & Francis Kramarz & Steven Machin & Alan Manning & David Margolis & Coen Teulings, 1996. "The Economic Impact of Minimum Wages in Europe," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00353896, HAL.
    17. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    18. Meyer, Robert H & Wise, David A, 1983. "The Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment and Earnings of Youth," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 66-100, January.
    19. Ms. Milka Casanegra de Jantscher & Mr. Vito Tanzi, 1987. "Presumptive Income Taxation: Administrative, Efficiency, and Equity Aspects," IMF Working Papers 1987/054, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    21. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Yaniv, Gideon, 1988. "Withholding and non-withheld tax evasion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 183-204, March.
    23. P G Moffatt, 2005. "Hurdle models of loan default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(9), pages 1063-1071, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Detection of wage under-reporting
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-01-24 21:32:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. World Bank, 2013. "Minimum Wage Policy : Lessons with a Focus on the ASEAN Region," World Bank Publications - Reports 16687, The World Bank Group.
    3. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    4. Péter Elek & János Köllő, 2019. "Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 547-576, August.
    5. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Balázs Reizer, 2015. "Do Firms Pay Bonuses to Protect Jobs?," CEU Working Papers 2015_6, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    7. Köllö, János & Boza, István & Balázsi, László, 2021. "Wage gains from foreign ownership: evidence from linked employer-employee data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 55, pages 1-3.
    8. Reizer, Balázs & Gáspár, Attila, 2023. "Újabb hozzászólás az ismét elmaradt minimálbérvitához [A futher comment on the minimum wage debate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 365-380.
    9. repec:lic:licosd:32412 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    11. Gergely Baksay & Balázs Csomós, 2015. "Analysis of the Changes in the Hungarian Tax System and Social Transfers between 2010 and 2014 Using a Behavioural Microsimulation Model," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 37(supplemen), pages 29-64, December.
    12. Lovász, Anna & Altwicker-Hámori, Szilvia, 2013. "A köz- és a magánszféra kereseti különbségei Magyarországon, 2002-2008. Javíthat-e hosszú távon a közalkalmazottak relatív helyzetén egy 50 százalékos béremelés? [An assessment of Hungary s public/," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 500-522.
    13. Svraka, András, 2021. "Recent trends in income inequalities in Hungary using administrative data," Taxation Working Papers 8, Ministry of Finance, Department of Tax Policy and International Taxation.
    14. Balazs Reizer, 2016. "Do Firms Pay Bonuses to Protect Jobs?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1612, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    15. Laszlo Gulyas & Tamás Mahr & Istvan Janos Toth, 2015. "Factors to Curb Tax Evasion: Evidences from the TAXSIM Agent-Based Simulation Model," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1521, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. János Köllö, 2010. "Hungary: The Consequences of Doubling the Minimum Wage," Chapters, in: Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead (ed.), The Minimum Wage Revisited in the Enlarged EU, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Carlos Oliveira, 2022. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Disitribution: Bite, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality," GEE Papers 0160, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2022.
    3. Oliveira, Carlos, 2023. "The minimum wage and the wage distribution in Portugal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Dickens, Richard & Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1998. "Estimating the effect of minimum wages on employment from the distribution of wages: A critical view," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 109-134, June.
    5. Sara Lemos, 2004. "A Menu of Minimum Wage Variables for Evaluating Wages and Employment Effects: Evidence from Brazil," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    6. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2101-2163 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Arindrajit Dube & Attila S. Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 32878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Colin C. Williams, 2014. "Confronting the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15370.
    9. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2006. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research," NBER Working Papers 12663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kamila Fialová & Martina Mysíková, 2009. "The Minimum Wage: Labor Market Consequences in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 255-274, August.
    11. Stefano Scarpetta, 1998. "Labor Market Reforms and Unemployment: Lessons from the Experience of the OECD Countries," Research Department Publications 4136, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Oliveira, Carlos, 2021. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Distribution: Minimum Wage, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality in Portugal," MPRA Paper 112534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, September.
    14. Cardoso, Ana & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Emplo," CEPR Discussion Papers 2844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Lemos Sara, 2005. "Political Variables as Instruments for the Minimum Wage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, December.
    16. Neumark David, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    17. Leibfritz, Willi, 2011. "Undeclared economic activity in central and eastern Europe -- how taxes contribute and how countries respond to the problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5923, The World Bank.
    18. Dolado, Juan J. & Felgueroso, Florentino & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The effects of minimum bargained wages on earnings: Evidence from Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 713-721, April.
    19. Zsófia L. Bárány, 2016. "The Minimum Wage and Inequality: The Effects of Education and Technology," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 237-274.
    20. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2003. "Understanding International Differences in the Gender Pay Gap," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 106-144, January.
    21. Tim Butcher & Richard Dickens & Alan Manning, 2012. "Minimum Wages and Wage Inequality: Some Theory and an Application to the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1177, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    double hurdle model; tax evasion; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.