IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp17617.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soda Taxes, BMI and Obesity: Evidence from Seattle

Author

Listed:
  • Flynn, James

    (Miami University)

  • Gruber, Anja

    (University of Colorado, Boulder)

Abstract

This paper uses restricted-access data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey to assess whether the sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax levied in Seattle in 2018 led to declines in body mass index (BMI) and the rate of obesity. We implement an event-study design which compares these outcomes in the treated region to those of untaxed areas. We find no evidence of divergence in trends prior to the tax, followed by large declines in both outcomes after the tax was implemented. We estimate that the tax led to a reduction of .61 BMI points and reduced the obesity rate by 4.5 percentage points. Declines were largest for individuals with lower incomes, those without a college degree, and younger people, which are all groups who tend to consume more SSBs at baseline. We address concerns that our results are driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and provide suggestive evidence that SSB taxes improved these outcomes in other SSB-taxed jurisdictions as well. Our study adds to the growing evidence that SSB taxes can improve public health, rather than only affecting prices, purchasing, or consumption of taxed beverages.

Suggested Citation

  • Flynn, James & Gruber, Anja, 2025. "Soda Taxes, BMI and Obesity: Evidence from Seattle," IZA Discussion Papers 17617, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp17617.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin B Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Regressive Sin Taxes, with an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1557-1626.
    2. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David & Hill, Anna & Jones, David, 2020. "Oakland’s sugar-sweetened beverage tax: Impacts on prices, purchases and consumption by adults and children," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Fletcher, Jason M. & Frisvold, David E. & Tefft, Nathan, 2010. "The effects of soft drink taxes on child and adolescent consumption and weight outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 967-974, December.
    4. Jones-Smith, Jessica C. & Pinero Walkinshaw, Lina & Oddo, Vanessa M. & Knox, Melissa & Neuhouser, Marian L. & Hurvitz, Philip M. & Saelens, Brian E. & Chan, Nadine, 2020. "Impact of a sweetened beverage tax on beverage prices in Seattle, WA," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    5. Julian M. Alston & Joanna P. MacEwan & Abigail M. Okrent, 2016. "The Economics of Obesity and Related Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 443-465, October.
    6. Finkelstein, Eric A. & Zhen, Chen & Bilger, Marcel & Nonnemaker, James & Farooqui, Assad M. & Todd, Jessica E., 2013. "Implications of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax when substitutions to non-beverage items are considered," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 219-239.
    7. Leider, Julien & Powell, Lisa M., 2022. "Longer-term impacts of the Oakland, California, sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and volume sold at two-years post-tax," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Falbe, J. & Thompson, H.R. & Becker, C.M. & Rojas, N. & McCulloch, C.E. & Madsen, K.A., 2016. "Impact of the Berkeley excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 106(10), pages 1865-1871.
    9. Cawley, John & Meyerhoefer, Chad, 2012. "The medical care costs of obesity: An instrumental variables approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-230.
    10. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David & Hill, Anna & Jones, David, 2019. "The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on purchases and consumption by adults and children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiang, Di & Zhan, Lue & Bordignon, Massimo, 2020. "A reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. James Flynn, 2023. "Do sugar‐sweetened beverage taxes improve public health for high school aged adolescents?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 47-64, January.
    3. Gračner, Tadeja, 2021. "Bittersweet: How prices of sugar-rich foods contribute to the diet-related disease epidemic in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Should We Tax Sugar-Sweetened Beverages? An Overview of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 202-227, Summer.
    5. Melissa A. Knox & Jessica C. Jones‐Smith, 2025. "Consumption responses to sweetened beverage taxes by household income in four U.S. cities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 154-174, January.
    6. Goncalves, Judite & Merenda, Roxanne & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2023. "Not So Sweet: Impacts of a Soda Tax on Producers," IZA Discussion Papers 15968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David, 2023. "Review: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages: Political economy, and effects on prices, purchases, and consumption," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Gonçalves, Judite & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2020. "Brown sugar, how come you taste so good? The impact of a soda tax on prices and consumption," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    9. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones & Chelsea Lensing, 2021. "The Pass‐Through of a Tax on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages in Boulder, Colorado," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 987-1005, May.
    10. Neuhofer, Zachary & McFadden, Brandon R. & Rihn, Alicia & Wei, Xuan & Khachatryan, Hayk & House, Lisa, 2020. "Can the updated nutrition facts label decrease sugar-sweetened beverage consumption?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    11. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Sunjin Ahn & Jayson L. Lusk, 2021. "Non‐Pecuniary Effects of Sugar‐Sweetened Beverage Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 53-69, January.
    13. Julio C. Arteaga & Daniel Flores & Edgar Luna, 2021. "The effect of a soft drink tax in Mexico: evidence from time series industry data," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 349-366, April.
    14. Pourya Valizadeh & Shu Wen Ng, 2021. "Would A National Sugar‐Sweetened Beverage Tax in the United States Be Well Targeted?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 961-986, May.
    15. John Cawley & Michael Daly & Rebecca Thornton, 2022. "The effect of beverage taxes on youth consumption and body mass index: Evidence from Mauritius," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1033-1045, June.
    16. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2023. "Let them Eat Cake? The Net Consumer Welfare Impact of Sin Taxes," MPRA Paper 116214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Massimo Bordignon & Di Xiang & Lue Zhan, 2018. "Predicting the Effects of a Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax in a Household Production Model," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def075, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    18. Jones-Smith, Jessica C. & Knox, Melissa A. & Coe, Norma B. & Walkinshaw, Lina P. & Schoof, John & Hamilton, Deven & Hurvitz, Philip M. & Krieger, James, 2022. "Sweetened beverage taxes: Economic benefits and costs according to household income," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Judite Gonçalves & Roxanne Merenda & João Pereira dos Santos, 2024. "Not so sweet: impacts of a soda tax on producers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(5), pages 1388-1412, October.
    20. Tobias König & Renke Schmacker, 2022. "Preferences for Sin Taxes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10046, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    soda tax; health behavior; taxation; obesity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.