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Optimal Travel Restrictions in Epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Wei

    (Jinan University)

  • Qiu, Yun

    (Jinan University)

  • Yu, Pei

    (Rice University)

  • Chen, Xi

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Travel restrictions are often imposed to limit the spread of infectious diseases. As uniform restrictions can be inefficient and incur unnecessarily high costs, this paper examines the optimal design of restrictions that target specific travel routes. We propose a model with trade-offs between costs of infections and costs of travel restrictions, where decisions are made with or without coordination between local jurisdictions and provide a computational feasible way to solve the optimization problem. We illustrate the model using the COVID-19 data in China. When travel restrictions target key routes, only around 5% of the possible routes need to be closed in order to have the same number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the initial outbreaks. Uncoordinated travel restrictions ignore policy externalities and therefore are sub-optimal in comparison to coordinated restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Wei & Qiu, Yun & Yu, Pei & Chen, Xi, 2022. "Optimal Travel Restrictions in Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 15290, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15290
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transmission; public health; economic cost; coordination; externality; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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