IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14848.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labour Mobility with Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Chand, Satish

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Clemens, Michael A.

    (George Mason University)

Abstract

How many immigrants with less than university education, for a given immigration quota, maximise economic output? The answer is zero in the canonical model of the labour market, where the marginal product of a university-educated immigrant is always higher. We build an alternative model in which national production occurs through a set of Leontief producation functions that shift over time with technological change. This model is used to estimate that the Australian economy growing at historical rates through the year 2050 will demand approximately two million migrant TVET workers, many of which could be supplied from the Pacific Islands.

Suggested Citation

  • Chand, Satish & Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Labour Mobility with Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 14848, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14848
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp14848.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pope, David & Withers, Glenn, 1993. "Do Migrants Rob Jobs? Lessons of Australian History, 1861–1991," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 719-742, December.
    2. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Chand, Satish & Clemens, Michael A. & Dempster, Helen, 2021. "A Pacific Skills Visa: Improving Opportunities for Skilled Migration throughout the Pacific Region," IZA Policy Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Daniel Crown & Alessandra Faggian & Jonathan Corcoran, 2020. "High skilled immigration and the occupational choices of native workers: the case of Australia," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 585-605.
    6. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    7. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    8. Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 517-549.
    9. Michael Coelli & Jeff Borland, 2016. "Job Polarisation and Earnings Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 1-27, March.
    10. Mette Foged & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants' Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    11. Gaetano Basso & Giovanni Peri & Ahmed S. Rahman, 2020. "Computerization and immigration: Theory and evidence from the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1457-1494, November.
    12. Nicholas Gailey & Wolfgang Lutz, 2018. "Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 221-234.
    13. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    14. Jerzmanowski, Michał & Tamura, Robert, 2023. "Aggregate elasticity of substitution between skills: estimates from a macroeconomic approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1597-1627, September.
    15. Guy Debelle, 1998. "Introduction to Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2013. "Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 97-128.
    17. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Roger Wilkins & Mark Wooden, 2014. "Two Decades of Change: The Australian Labour Market, 1993–2013," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 47(4), pages 417-431, December.
    19. John Freebairn, 1998. "Microeconomics of the Australian Labour Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    21. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    22. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    23. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2014. "The Development Impact of a Best Practice Seasonal Worker Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 229-243, May.
    24. John Gibson & Rochelle-Lee Bailey, 2021. "Seasonal Labor Mobility in the Pacific: Past Impacts, Future Prospects," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 38(1), pages 1-31, March.
    25. David Stern, 2011. "Elasticities of substitution and complementarity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 79-89, August.
    26. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    27. Jan Tinbergen, 1974. "Substitution Of Graduate By Other Labour," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 217-226, January.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4t83lre9hm91sq006n4940n19s is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Michael A. Clemens & Colum Graham & Stephen Howes, 2015. "Skill Development and Regional Mobility: Lessons from the Australia-Pacific Technical College," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(11), pages 1502-1517, November.
    30. Robert Breunig & Nathan Deutscher & Hang Thi To, 2017. "The Relationship between Immigration to Australia and the Labour Market Outcomes of Australian-Born Workers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(301), pages 255-276, June.
    31. Frieling, Julius & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Estimation of Substitution Elasticities in Three-Factor Production Functions: Identifying the Role of Energy," FCN Working Papers 1/2016, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2016.
    32. Patricia Cortés & Jessica Pan, 2013. "Outsourcing Household Production: Foreign Domestic Workers and Native Labor Supply in Hong Kong," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 327-371.
    33. repec:bla:kyklos:v:27:y:1974:i:2:p:217-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Wojciech Hardy & Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2018. "Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(2), pages 201-231, April.
    35. Anderson, R. K. & Moroney, J. R., 1993. "Morishima elasticities of substitution with nested production functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2-3), pages 159-166.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sevinç, Orhun, 2017. "Skill-biased technical change and Labor market polarization:the role of skill heterogeneity within occupations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Lin, Gary C., 2019. "High-skilled immigration and native task specialization in U.S. cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 289-305.
    3. Andreas Beerli & Ronald Indergand & Johannes S. Kunz, 2023. "The supply of foreign talent: how skill-biased technology drives the location choice and skills of new immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 681-718, April.
    4. Gaetano Basso, 2020. "The Evolution of the Occupational Structure in Italy, 2007–2017," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 673-704, November.
    5. Firsin, Oleg, 2023. "How does offshoring affect the wage impact of immigration?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    7. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    8. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2023. "International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    10. Brey, Björn, 2024. "The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Wenchao Jin, 2022. "Occupational polarisation and endogenous task-biased technical change," Working Paper Series 0622, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Maximilian Longmuir & Carsten Schröde & Matteo Targa, 2020. "De-Routinization of Jobs and Polarization of Earnings: Evidence from 35 Countries," Working Papers 1397, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Jun 2020.
    13. Brindusa Anghel & Sara Rica & Aitor Lacuesta, 2014. "The impact of the great recession on employment polarization in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 143-171, August.
    14. Hanson, Gordon & Liu, Chen, 2023. "Immigration and occupational comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2016. "Offshoring medium-skill tasks, low-skill unemployment and the skill-wage structure," MERIT Working Papers 2016-070, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    17. Wan-Jung Cheng, 2017. "Explaining Job Polarization: The Role of Heterogeneity in Capital Intensity," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 17-A015, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, revised Feb 2018.
    18. Da Silva, António Dias & Laws, Athene & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2019. "Hours of work polarisation?," Working Paper Series 2324, European Central Bank.
    19. Javed, Mohsin, 2023. "Robots, Natives and Immigrants in US local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    training; TVET; low skill; labor; immigration; human capital; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.