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Fixed-Term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment

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  • Maia Güell

Abstract

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studies the implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the duration dependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyze the chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction of fixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased since such reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that for long spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased since such reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia Güell, 2001. "Fixed-Term Contracts and the Duration Distribution of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0505, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0505
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    Cited by:

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    3. Miltiadis Staboulis, 2019. "Flexible Forms of Employment Integration. Assessing the Implementation of Pilot Projects Promoting Flexible Arrangements: The Case of Cyprus," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 221-238.
    4. cipollone piero & Anita Guelfi, 2003. "tax credit policy and firms' behaviour: the case of subsidy to open-end labour contract in italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 471, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. J. García-Pérez & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2004. "Are Temporary Help Agencies changing mobility patterns in the Spanish labour market?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 43-65, January.
    6. Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zuzana Potužáková & Stanislava Mildeová, 2015. "Analýza příčin a důsledků nezaměstnanosti mladých v Evropské unii [Analysis of Causes and Consequences of the Youth Unployment in the EU]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(7), pages 877-894.
    8. Ulku,Hulya & Muzi,Silvia, 2015. "Labor market regulations and outcomes in Sweden : a comparative analysis of recent trends," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7229, The World Bank.
    9. Bukowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr & Koloch, Grzegorz & Baranowska, Anna & Magda, Iga & Szydlowski, Arkadiusz & Bober, Magda & Bieliński, Jacek & Zawistowski, Julian & Sarzalska, Malgorzata, 2008. "Employment in Poland 2007: Security on flexible labour market," MPRA Paper 14284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tejada, Mauricio M., 2017. "Dual labor markets and labor protection in an estimated search and matching model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 26-46.
    11. Edoardo Di Porto & Leandro Elia & Cristina Tealdi, 2013. "The "emersion" effect: an ex post and ex ante social program evaluation on labor tax evasion in Italy," Working Papers 2/2013, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jun 2013.
    12. Chung, Heejung, 2005. "Different paths towards Flexibility, Deregulated employment protection or temporary employment?," MPRA Paper 2396, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2005.
    13. P. Garcia-del-Barrio & L. A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "New revelations about unemployment persistence in Spain: time-series and panel data approaches using regional data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 219-236.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-sectional data; duration model; turnover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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