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Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change

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  • Frankel, David M.
  • Pauzner, Ady

Abstract

We study the role of expectations when agents have a preference for segregation and households face moving frictions. In a fixed environment, there are multiple equilibria: agents' expectations determine whether an ethnic transition occurs. However, the outcome is unique if there is a deterministic trend that gradually makes the neighborhood more appealing to the outside group. It is also unique if the relative payoff from living in the neighborhood is subject to small shocks. In both cases, the insiders must leave at the first possible moment: when the outsiders would outbid them if an immediate ethnic transition were expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, David M. & Pauzner, Ady, 2002. "Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11921, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:11921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Frankel & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 285-304.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, David M., 2012. "Recurrent crises in global games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 309-321.
    2. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Machado, Caio, 2013. "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies," MPRA Paper 48895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bernardo Guimaraes & Gabriel Jardanovski, 2022. "Who matters in dynamic coordination problems?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 452-469, June.
    4. Torkel Bjørnskau, 2005. "Road Traffic Change: A Catalyst for Segregation?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(1), pages 69-89, January.
    5. Frankel, David M., 2017. "Efficient ex-ante stabilization of firms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 112-144.
    6. Ouazad, Amine, 2015. "Blockbusting: Brokers and the dynamics of segregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 811-841.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2001.
    8. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2017. "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 13-33.
    9. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 6-6.
    10. Vassilis Tselios & Philip McCann & Jouke van Dijk, 2017. "Understanding the gap between reality and expectation: Local social engagement and ethnic concentration," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(11), pages 2592-2612, August.
    11. Itzhak Benenson & Erez Hatna & Ehud Or, 2009. "From Schelling to Spatially Explicit Modeling of Urban Ethnic and Economic Residential Dynamics," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 37(4), pages 463-497, May.
    12. Bernardo Guimaraes & Caio Machado & Ana E. Pereira, 2020. "Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: Theory and applications," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 656-697, June.
    13. N. Edward Coulson & Robin M. Leichenko, 2004. "Historic Preservation and Neighbourhood Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(8), pages 1587-1600, July.
    14. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2016. "QWERTY is efficient," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 819-825.

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