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Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo Guimaraes

    (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

  • Caio Machado

    (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV)

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Guimaraes & Caio Machado, 2014. "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus Policies," Discussion Papers 1503, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1503
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernardo Guimaraes & Caio Machado & Marcel Ribeiro, 2016. "A Model of the Confidence Channel of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1363-1395, October.
    2. Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel & Edouard Schaal, 2015. "Coordinating Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 178, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2017. "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 13-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand Expectations; Coordination; Fiscal Stimulus; Timing Frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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