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Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • José Alves
  • Sofia Monteiro

Abstract

Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we first estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability, through the cointegration between government revenues and expenditures, and of external sustainability, derived from the exports-imports cointegration. We then resort to those time-varying coefficients to assess their impact on sovereign risk, proxied by 10-year CDS and CDS spreads (against the US) making use of Weighted Least Squares (WLS) analysis. Noticeably, we show that an improvement of both fiscal and external sustainability lead to a reduction in sovereign risk. This phenomenon becomes notably pronounced, particularly when examining countries experiencing an upward trajectory in their public debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances," Working Papers REM 2024/0311, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03112024
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Risk; Fiscal Sustainability; External Sustainability; CDS; CDS spreads.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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