IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v22y2015i11p925-929.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal sustainability: a panel assessment for advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ant�nio Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries using panel unit root and cointegration analyses. Results show no cointegration (no sustainability) between revenues and expenditures, improvement of the primary balances after worsening debt ratios and causality from government debt to primary balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Ant�nio Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability: a panel assessment for advanced economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 925-929, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:11:p:925-929
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.987913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2014.987913
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2014.987913?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    3. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    4. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "The Relationship Between Debt Level And Fiscal Sustainability In Organization For Economic Cooperation And Development Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 129-149, January.
    5. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    8. repec:bla:obuest:v:62:y:2000:i:2:p:175-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cosimo Magazzino, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability in the GCC countries," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 389-408, August.
    2. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
    3. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 189-202, July.
    4. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    6. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2024. "Budgetary Constrained Governments: Drivers of Time Varying Fiscal Sustainability in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11137, CESifo.
    7. María Deseada López Subires & Laura Alcaide Muñoz & Andrés Navarro Galera & Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar, 2019. "The Influence of Socio-Demographic Factors on Financial Sustainability of Public Services: A Comparative Analysis in Regional Governments and Local Governments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Mikhail B. Petrov & Leonid A. Serkov & Kseniya A. Zavyalova, 2023. "Causal analysis of the interinfluence of workforce productivity and rail freight intensity in the regions of the Ural Federal District," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 9(3), pages 310-324.
    9. Andrés Navarro-Galera & Francisco José Alcaraz-Quiles & David Ortiz-Rodriguez, 2018. "Enhancing Sustainability Transparency in Local Governments—An Empirical Research in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: The time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar & Andrés Navarro Galera & Laura Alcaide Muñoz & María Deseada López Subires, 2016. "Analyzing Forces to the Financial Contribution of Local Governments to Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel, 2018. "Size-corrected inference in fiscal policy reaction functions: a three country assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 391-416, September.
    13. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    14. Francisco J. Alcaraz-Quiles & Andrés Navarro-Galera & David Ortiz-Rodríguez, 2020. "The contribution of the right to information laws in Europe to local government transparency on sustainability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 161-178, March.
    15. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & María A. Prats, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    16. Malte Rengel, 2020. "Sustainability of European fiscal balances: Just a statistical artifact?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1681-1712, April.
    17. Gabriel Puron‐Cid, 2021. "The effects of corruption of public officials on the dimensions of financial sustainability of state governments in Mexico," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 65-88, June.
    18. Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Glavaški & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2019. "Fiscal Sustainability in Flow Model: Panel Cointegration Approach for the EU-28," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 15-24, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    4. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    5. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Fiscal Sustainability in the EU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 297-311, September.
    6. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 08-11, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    7. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2022. "Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants," Working Papers REM 2022/0219, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
    10. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    11. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    12. Qiongzhi Liu & Bang Cui & Chan Luo, 2022. "A Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Eastern European Countries - A Post-Crisis Assessment," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 175-188.
    14. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    16. Munawar-Shah, Syed & Abdul-Majid, Mariani & Hussain-Shah, Syed, 2014. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability for SAARC and IMT-GT Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 26-40.
    17. Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Hosan, Shahadat & Chapman, Andrew J. & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2021. "The role of environmental taxes on technological innovation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    18. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    19. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    20. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The importance of energy quality in energy intensive manufacturing: Evidence from panel cointegration and panel FMOLS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1819-1825.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:11:p:925-929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.