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Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?

Author

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  • Pierre Aldama

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The sustainability of US public debt has been widely discussed since the Great Recession. Using annual data since 1940, we estimate and compare different specifications of fiscal rules. Estimates of constant-parameter fiscal rules show no evidence of sustainability. This may be due to the instability of government's behaviour over time. Thus, we estimate a Markov-switching fiscal rule in order to identify periods of unsustainable and sustainable fiscal policies. First, we show that the government stabilizes public debt only periodically. Second, during these periods, the government's reaction is sufficiently tight to stabilize public debt over the entire horizon. We conclude that a relatively short-lived but tight fiscal contraction can be sufficient to ensure long-run US debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2019. "Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?," Post-Print hal-03384685, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03384685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.03.017
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    2. Spataro, Luca & Fanti, Luciano & Pacini, Pier Mario, 2019. "Saving, fertility and public policy in an overlapping generations small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 16-29.
    3. António Afonso & José Alves & Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Role of Inflation," Working Papers REM 2023/0303, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Srivastava, Dinesh Kumar & Trehan, Ragini & Bharadwaj, Muralikrishna & Kapur, Tarrung, 2021. "Revisiting fiscal responsibility norms: a cross country analysis of the impact of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 108903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Intan Syahrini & Yusri Hazmi & Raja Masbar & Aliasuddin & Said Munzir, 2021. "Optimal Control Dynamic Relationships and Fiscal Policies in Indonesia’s Economy," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 34-51.
    6. Daisuke Miyashita, 2023. "Public debt and income inequality in an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 447-472, August.
    7. Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal, 2019. "The US Fiscal Consolidation, its impact and policy implications," MPRA Paper 98223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Victor Bystrov, 2022. "The Evolution of Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics: The Case of Sweden," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-83.
    9. Canofari, Paolo & Marini, Giancarlo & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 192-204.
    10. Karsten Staehr & Olegs Tkacevs & Katri Urke, 2023. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the Euro Area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    11. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    12. Hernán Ricardo Briceño & Javier Perote, 2020. "Determinants of the Public Debt in the Eurozone and Its Sustainability Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-29, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal rules; Fiscal regimes; Fiscal sustainability; Public debt; Markov-switching; Model-based sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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