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Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach

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  • Navarro-Ortiz, Josep
  • Sapena, Juan

Abstract

We develop a probabilistic approach to measure a country's external debt sustainability. Using data on international investment position and balance of payments from the International Monetary Fund, we estimate a vector autoregressive model for 38 countries (11 developed and 27 developing). Using the estimated parameters, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the distribution of the capacity to repay for each country. A large portion of the projected distribution to the right of current debt is a warning indicator, signalling the need for devaluation. We provide simulations for each country. One scenario is where the discount factor is lower than 1. According to the literature, this situation should prevail in the medium and long run. A quite different situation is where external sustainability is achieved because of a simulated discount factor of more than 1. Here, interest on debt is lower than GDP growth. This situation is associated with dynamic inefficiency. The results suggest that flight to safety is penalising some developing countries, whilst benefiting some developed countries.

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  • Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:93:y:2020:i:c:p:142-153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.014
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    3. Hiep Ngoc Luu & Nguyen Hanh Luu & Huong Thi Thu Phung, 2024. "Would external debts promote sustainable development in emerging and low‐income countries?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1110-1128, March.
    4. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: The time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account imbalances; External sustainability; Vector autoregressions; Uncertainty; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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