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Nível do Câmbio e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Países em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes - 1980 - 2007

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  • Eliane Cristina de Araújo

Abstract

Este artigo analisa teórica e empiricamente a relação entre nível da taxa de câmbio e crescimento econômico nos países em desenvolvimento e emergentes. Inicialmente os objetivos da política cambial são discutidos, enfatizando a importância dessa política como instrumento impulsionador do crescimento econômico. Dando continuidade à análise teórica, alguns canais de influência do nível da taxa de câmbio sobre o crescimento econômico são apontados, quais sejam: os canais i) do investimento; ii) da exportação dos bens não tradicionais (fundamento tecnológico); iii) da produtividade; iv) compensação às falhas de mercado e às falhas contratuais; e v) estímulo à elasticidade-renda das exportações. Na parte empírica, uma medida de subvalorização cambial baseada em Rodrik (2007) é construída para 82 países emergentes e em desenvolvimento, entre 1980 e 2007. Esta medida é empregada para captar a relação entre taxa de câmbio desvalorizada e crescimento econômico, mediante a utilização de técnicas econométricas para dados em painéis. Os resultados das estimações apontam uma relação positiva e estatisticamente significante entre subvalorização cambial e crescimento econômico nos países que fazem parte da amostra, corroborando a importância da taxa de câmbio, apontada na parte teórica, para estimular o crescimento e o desenvolvimento econômico. The article analyses theoretic and empirically the relationship between exchange rate level and economic growth in developing countries. Firstly, the exchange rate policy objectives are discussed, emphasizing the importance of this policy to generate economic growth. Continuing, the article explores the channels through which exchange rates can affect economic growth, highlighting its stimulus to investment, export of non-traditional goods, productivity as well as its compensation to market failures and its stimulus to export income-elasticity. In the empirical part, a measure of exchange rate undervaluation based on Rodrik (2007) is built for 82 developing countries, between 1980 and 2007. This measure is used to investigate the relationship between undervaluated exchange rate and economic growth, by econometrics techniques for panel data. The result of the estimations point out the positive correlation between undervaluated exchange rate and economic growth,confirming the importance of the exchange rate as an instrument to promote economic growth and developing.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2009. "Nível do Câmbio e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Países em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes - 1980 - 2007," Discussion Papers 1425, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.

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