IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ums/papers/2013-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Correctly Analyzing the Balance of Payments Constraint on Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Arslan Razmi

    (University of Massachusetts-Amherst)

Abstract

The BPCG model provides an interesting hypothesis regarding economic growth. The main implication is that world demand places a constraint on individual country performance. I discuss this implication and argue that tests of the BPCG model have essentially been tests of the hypothesis that trade is balanced over the long run; a plausible hypothesis but one that need not hold mainly due to demand-side constraints. I then discuss the role of relative prices and investment, point out logical inadequacies in the traditional BPCG framework, and suggest an alternative theoretical framework to investigate its robustness. Our theoretical and empirical explorations contribute to reconciling evidence supporting the BPCG hypothesis with recent work that consistently ?nds an important role for the level of the real exchange rate and investment, independently of world demand growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2013. "Correctly Analyzing the Balance of Payments Constraint on Growth," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2013-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2013-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, May.
    4. Blecker, Robert A., 1996. "The new economic integration: Structuralist models of North-South trade and investment liberalization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 321-345, September.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    7. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(6), pages 1019-1039.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    9. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, 2013. "Fear of appreciation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 233-247.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Exchange rates and international adjustment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 63-87, October.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    12. Frenkel, Roberto & Ros, Jaime, 2006. "Unemployment and the real exchange rate in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 631-646, April.
    13. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    14. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    15. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    16. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
    18. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    2. Palazzo, Gabriel & Rapetti, Martín, 2023. "From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 223-252.
    3. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    4. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    5. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. Gouvea, Raphael Rocha & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2011. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation," MPRA Paper 29816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2009. "The Real Exchange Rate as an Instrument of Development Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    9. Marwil J. Dávila‐Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2024. "Thirlwall's law: Binding constraint or ‘centre‐of‐gravity’?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 52-82, February.
    10. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    12. Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Lorenzo Nalin, 2022. "Financial Barriers to Structural Change in Developing Economies: A Theoretical Framework," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1004, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martin, 2014. "The real exchange rate as a target of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 59335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Roberto Frankel & Martín Rapetti, 2010. "A Concise History of Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2010-11, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    15. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 620-640, November.
    16. Couharde, Cécile & Sallenave, Audrey, 2013. "How do currency misalignments’ threshold affect economic growth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 106-120.
    17. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, 2012. "New Insights from a Structural Economic Dynamic Approach to Balance of Payments Constrained Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 8, pages 217-238, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.
    19. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    20. Mart�n Rapetti & Peter Skott & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 735-753, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of payments-constrained growth model; accumulation; demand-led growth; real exchange rates; terms of trade.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2013-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Girardi The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Daniele Girardi to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.