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Pensiones en Chile: ¿Qué Hubiese Ocurrido sin la Reforma de 1981?

Author

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  • Rodrigo Cerda

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Abstract

Este documento discute qué hubiese ocurrido en la economía chilena si no se hubiera realizado la reforma de pensiones de 1981. El énfasis de la discusión se pone en la sustentabilidad fiscal del sistema de pensiones, su grado de cobertura, niveles de pensiones y su impacto en la acumulación de capital, empleo y PIB. Para realizar esta discusión, este documento realiza ejercicios de simulación de un modelo macroeconómico. Los resultados de nuestro ejercicio se pueden clasificar en tres categorías: (a) situación financiera del sistema de reparto, (b) situación del sistema de pensiones en términos de cobertura y pensiones y (c) efectos macroeconómicos. Nuestras simulaciones indican que el sistema mostraba altos y crecientes déficits desde el año 2000 en adelante. La discusión relativa a la cobertura de pensiones y el monto de las pensiones trae ciertos resultados a destacar. En primer lugar la cobertura de beneficios es cercana al 40% en el largo plazo, y una fracción muy significativa recibe pensiones mínimas. Más aún, nuestros resultados muestran que el monto de las pensiones promedio que se obtienen en el sistema son relativamente modestas. En relación a los impactos macroeconómicos, el trabajo encuentra impactos a partir de los cambios en decisiones de ahorro de los hogares.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Cerda, 2006. "Pensiones en Chile: ¿Qué Hubiese Ocurrido sin la Reforma de 1981?," Documentos de Trabajo 310, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:310
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    File URL: https://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/doctra/dt-310.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel RIESCO, 2009. "Change in the Chilean social model," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 148(3), pages 283-300, September.

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