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How Does Pension Reform Affect Savings and Welfare

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  • Rodrigo Cifuentes

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of pension reform on precautionary savings, wealth accumulation and welfare. The impact of pension programs on income uncertainty through life has been largely ignored in the literature of precautionary savings and pension reform. This paper uses dynamic programming techniques to solve for the optimal consumption of a worker that faces uncertainty on labor and retirement income. Subsequently, with parameter values for the U.S., I study the impact of two policies on workers with different on educational levels. One is the elimination of redistribution in the current benefits formula. The second is the change from system defined in benefits (DB) to one defined in contributions (DC). In the first case, results show that redistribution is valued positively by all types of agents, even by those who expect losses from it, given their expected income. As a consequence, workers increase their savings to prepare for the increased uncertainty. The increase in aggregate savings is in the order of 4%. The second case has the opposite consequences. Welfare increases with the adoption of the DC system because it has superior insurance properties. The advantage consists in that periods on which the variance of income is lower receive a higher weight in the calculation of benefits. Precautionary savings are reduced with a fall in aggregate savings of 1.4%.

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  • Rodrigo Cifuentes, 2000. "How Does Pension Reform Affect Savings and Welfare," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 80, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:80
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_80.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Cerda, 2006. "Pensiones en Chile: ¿Qué Hubiese Ocurrido sin la Reforma de 1981?," Documentos de Trabajo 310, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    2. Chumacero Rómulo A., 2001. "Estimating ARMA Models Efficiently," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Li, Carmen A & Olivera, Javier, 2005. "Participation in the Peruvian reformed pension system," Economics Discussion Papers 3618, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Rodrigo Cifuentes, 2005. "Tax Incentives for Retirement Savings: Simulation Results in the Presence of Liquidity Constraints and Heterogeneous Consumers in an OLG-GE Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 13, pages 415-440, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Rodrigo Cifuentes, 2003. "Tax Incentives for Retirement Savings: Macro and Welfare Effects in an OLG-GE Model with Liquidity Constraints and Heterogeneous Consumers," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 242, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Cerda, Rodrigo A., 2008. "Social Security and Wealth Accumulation in Developing Economies: Evidence from the 1981 Chilean Reform," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2029-2044, October.

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