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Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers

Author

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Bhavyaa Sharma

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

We first assess the fiscal space and cyclicality of total Indian Central Government expenditure and its major components. Next we estimate multipliers for total, capital, and revenue expenditure. We extend the Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) to include supply shocks and the monetary policy response sequentially and together. The long-run capex multiplier is much larger than the revex. Capex also reduces inflation more over the long-term. Despite this, capex is more volatile. Monetary policy accommodates capex and tightens in response to revex, but absence of active accommodation during supply shocks reduces the capex multiplier. Implications follow for fiscal-monetary coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2015. "Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. M. R. Anantha Ramu & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Goyal, Ashima, 2018. "The Indian Fiscal-Monetary Framework: Dominance or Coordination?," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; SVAR; Revenue expenditure; Capital expenditure; Fiscal-Monetary coordination; Supply shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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