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Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels

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  • M. R. Anantha Ramu

    (Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC))

  • K. Gayithri

    (Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC))

Abstract

Fiscal deficit and inflation are the two major macroeconomic problems confronting the Indian economy. Although it had manifested in various degrees earlier, these problems escalated after the recent global financial crisis. It has always been criticized that fiscal deficit will adversely impact the level of inflation. This critique has been proved and validated by many existing studies in the context of India. This paper strives to track the channels of transmission through which fiscal deficit has passed on and impacted the level of inflation in India. Based on theoretical and empirical literature, this study identifies four transmission channels, namely consumption expenditure channel, money supply channel, import channel and interest rate channel. By adopting structural vector autoregression model, it has been found that the fiscal deficit transmission mechanism is clearly evident with regard to consumption channel, money supply channel and import channel but not the interest rate channel.

Suggested Citation

  • M. R. Anantha Ramu & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jsecdv:v:19:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s40847-017-0042-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40847-017-0042-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Biswajit Maitra & Tafajul Hossain, 2020. "Inflation in India: causes and anti-inflationary policy perception," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 363-387, August.
    2. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Fiscal policy and macroeconomic effects: structural macroeconometric model and simulation analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 81-105, June.
    3. Ghosh, Probal P., 2022. "Impact of India's diesel subsidy reforms and pricing policy on growth and inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deficit; Inflation; Interest rate; Imports; Transmission channels; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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