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Inflation persistence in Europe: The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine war

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (Brunel University London)

  • Juan Infante

    (Universidad Villabueva)

  • Luis Gil-Alana

    (Universidad de Navarra)

  • Raquel Ayestaran

    (Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Abstract

This note analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine war on the degree of inflation persistence in both the euro zone and the European Union as a whole (EU27). For this purpose a fractional integration model is estimated, first for the full sample and then using recursive and rolling methods. Although the two latter methods provide evidence of a significant increase in inflation persistence (at least in the case of the EU27, for which in addition to jumps an upward trend is clearly identifiable), the full-sample results imply long-lasting but only temporary effects of the two shocks being examined. These findings suggest that the required policy response to both shocks should also have a temporary nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juan Infante & Luis Gil-Alana & Raquel Ayestaran, 2023. "Inflation persistence in Europe: The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and of the Russia-Ukraine war," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 137-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00789
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    2. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    4. Bodnár, Katalin & Schuler, Tobias, 2022. "The surge in euro area food inflation and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    5. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raquel Ayestarán & Juan Infante & Juan José Tenorio & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Evidence of Inflation Using Harmonized Consumer Price Indices in Some Euro Countries: France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro Zone," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation persistence; fractional integration; recursive estimation; Covid-19 pandemic; Russia-Ukraine war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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